本文以 Ramsey(1928)外生成長模型為基礎，並將石油引入生產函數中，建構一個小型開放經濟體系，據此探討在未預料到、預料到政策變動兩種情形時，所得稅稅率、能源進口稅稅率以及國際石油價格對消費與資本存量的影響。
我們可以發現，當政府宣告提高所得稅稅率時，則消費會發生錯向調整；當政府宣告提高能源稅稅率時，則消費會發生錯向調整或單調下降；當面對國際石油價格提高時，則消費會發生錯向調整或單調下降。

Based on the Ramsey(1928) model, this paper sets up a small open economy model featured will imported oil in domestic output production. The small open economy we consider is composed of three sectors: a production sector, a household sector, and a government sector. This thesis examines the announcement effect stemming from anticipated shocks of the income tax rate, the energy imported tax rate, and the international oil price. Several main findings emerge from the analysis. First, when the government announces to increase the income tax rate in the future, the misadjustment of consumption can be observed in the short run. Second, when the government announces to increase the energy imported tax rate in the future, consumption may exhibit a misadjustment path or an undershooting behavior in the short run. Third, faced with an anticipated shocks in international oil prices, consumption may display a misadjustment path or an undershooting behavior in the short run.

目錄
謝辭 ii
摘要 iii
Abstract iv
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 文獻回顧 3
一、經濟成長的相關文獻 3
二、石油的相關文獻 4
三、宣示效果的相關文獻 5
第三節 本文架構 6
第二章 理論模型 7
第一節 模型設定 7
一、廠商部門 7
二、家計部門 8
三、政府部門 9
第二節 總體均衡分析 11
第三節 動態與長期均衡分析 14
第三章 政策的宣示效果 23
第一節 未預料到的恆久性提高所得稅稅率 24
第二節 預料到的恆久性提高所得稅稅率 26
第三節 未預料到的恆久性提高能源進口稅稅率 31
第四節 預料到的恆久性提高能源進口稅稅率 34
第五節 未預料到的恆久性提高國際石油價格 39
第六節 預料到的恆久性提高國際石油價格 42
第四章 結論 52
附錄A 53
附錄B 54
附錄C 55
附錄D 56
參考文獻 58


圖目錄
圖2-3-1 C與K象限之相位圖 22
圖2-3-2 動態調整軌跡圖 22
圖3-1-1 未預料到恆久性提高所得稅稅率 47
圖3-2-1 預料到恆久性提高所得稅稅率 47
圖3-3-1 未預料到恆久性提高能源進口稅稅率：SS線上移 48
圖3-3-2 未預料到恆久性提高能源進口稅稅率：SS線下移 48
圖3-4-1 預料到恆久性提高能源進口稅稅率：SS線上移 49
圖3-4-2 預料到恆久性提高能源進口稅稅率：SS線下移 49
圖3-5-1 未預料到恆久性提高國際石油價格：SS線上移 50
圖3-5-2 未預料到恆久性提高國際石油價格：SS線下移 50
圖3-6-1 預料到恆久性提高國際石油價格：SS線上移 51
圖3-6-2 預料到恆久性提高國際石油價格：SS線下移 51

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