現今的股票市場中，我們常常看到企業獲利表現良好、償債能力沒有任何問題，但是股價就是停滯不前；也有看到獲利並不是特別出色，但企業有非常強大的題材、未來性，因此成為市場上炙手可熱的飆股，以上的敘述案例層出不窮，現在的投資人，比起眼前的獲利能力，更願意給予企業的未來更多的期待，並給予相對高價格的共識。
本文因此將企業的未來成長價值量化，讓讀者可以去探究企業未來成長價值的奧秘。企業的市場價值，可以拆分為現有營運價值(Current operating Value, COV)和未來成長價值(Future growth Value, FGV)，前者所代表的為依照企業現有的財報營運規模所能反映出的價值，後者則表示投資人對於企業的前景、未來給予的市場共識，這一部分通常會隨著投資人的情緒而大起大落，投資人也最好奇，哪些變數會實際的影響企業的未來成長價值FGV。
本文將FGV比率做為應變數，資本報酬率、資金成本、再投資率、營收成長率與企業規模做為自變數，去進行各種敘述統計以及4種複回歸模型，觀察各種FGV的結果，因此得出以下得結論 :

1. 資本報酬率(ROIC)與FGV呈現負相關
2. 資金成本(WACC)與FGV呈現正相關
3. 再投資率與FGV呈現正相關
4. 營收成長率與FGV呈現無顯著影響
5. 企業規模與FGV呈現負相關

關鍵字 : 未來成長價值，經濟附加價值、現有營運價值、企業市場價值、資金成本、混合模型、個體固定效果、時間固定效果、隨機效果模型

In modern stock market, there are a lot of situation that the outstanding profit of one corporation is along with the unchanged stock price or the poor profit but having good story of another corporation is along with skyrocket stock price. Rather than profitability on the financial report, the investors are more willing to give the higher stock price for those companies who have the future stories and strong growth rate in the future.
This article is attempting to quantify the future growth value for the company. The enterprise value of market price can be divided into two parts, one is called current operating value (COV), another is future growth value (FGV). The former one is reflecting the value of financial report, including asset-in-place and PP&E and current operating value, and the latter one is evaluating the price consensus of all investors in the stock market, representing how the investors observe the company or specific industry.
The research regarded the future growth value (FGV) as the independent variable and return on Capital (ROIC), weighted average cost of capital (WACC), Reinvestment rate, Revenue YoY and Company size as the dependent variables. Using this variable to do the descriptive statistic and regression model. The results below：
1. Future growth rate & ROIC, Negative relation
2. Future growth rate & WACC, Positive relation
3. Future growth rate & reinvestment, Positive relation
4. Future growth rate & Revenue YoY, No relation
5. Future growth rate & Company size, Negative relation
Keywords：COV, FGV, ROIC, WACC, EVA, Pooling model, Paneling model, Cross Sectional model, Random effect

論文審定書 ii
致謝文 iii
中文摘要 iv
英文摘要 v
目錄 vi
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究目的 2
第三節 研究架構 3
第二章 文獻回顧 5
第一節 經濟附加價值(EVA)的運用 5
第二節 未來成長價值相關實證研究 8
第三章 研究方法 12
第一節 研究問題 12
第二節 研究假說 14
第三節 變數衡量 17
第四節 模型解釋與選擇 25
第四章 資料與敘述統計 28
第一節 資料探勘與處理 28
第二節 產業敘述統計 29
第五章 回歸分析實證結果 42
第六章 結論與建議 48
第一節 研究結論 48
第二節 後續研究建議 52
英文參考文獻 54
中文參考文獻 55

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