本文研究主併公司的估值誤差對主併公司短期累積異常報酬（CAR）和長期累積異常報酬（BHAR）的影響。本文使用M/B（market-to-book ratio）分解出公司特定誤差、時間序列產業誤差和長期成長機會，其中主併公司的估值誤差是由分析師預測數據和主併公司相關財務資訊的回歸模型預估得出。實證結果表明，公司特定誤差和時間序列產業誤差對主併公司的CAR有顯著性負相關；當CAR窗口增加，錯誤估對CAR影響的顯著性下降；主併公司兩種錯誤估值都對BHAR的影響是不顯著。原因是僅利用錯誤估值因素去預測或判斷合併收購後主併公司BHAR是不夠充分的， BHAR的估算過程跨越期間幅度較大，因此，BHAR可能受多种因素影响。錯誤估值對支付方式的實證結果表明，時間序列產業誤差對主併公司選擇現金支付的機率有顯著性的負相關。

This paper studies the impact of the misvaluation of the acquirers on the cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) and buy-and-hold abnormal returns (BHAR) of the acquirers. This article breaks down M/B (market-to-book ratio) to company-specific errors, time-series industry errors, and long-term growth opportunities. The misvaluation of the acquirers is based on analyst forecast data and relevant financial information of the acquirers. The empirical results show that the company-specific errors and the time series industry error has a significant negative correlation with the CAR of the acquirers. However, when the CAR time-window increases, the significance of the impact of the time series industry error on the CAR decreases. Both types of the misvaluation of the acquirers have no significant impact on BHAR. The reason is that it is insufficient to use misvaluation factors alone to predict the BHAR of acquirers. The BHAR is estimated over a long period of time. Thus, BHAR may be affected by numerous factors. The empirical results of the misvaluation on payment methods show that the time series industry error has a significant negative correlation with the probability of using cash as a payment

審定書.......................................................................................................................................... I
摘要 ............................................................................................................................................ II
ABSTRACT...................................................................................................................................III
目錄 ............................................................................................................................................ IV
表目錄.......................................................................................................................................... V
1 導論 .......................................................................................................................... 1
2 文獻探討與回顧 ....................................................................................................... 3
3 理論與假說 ............................................................................................................... 5
4 理論模型與研究方法 .............................................................................................. 10
5 資料來源.................................................................................................................. 17
6 實證結果.................................................................................................................. 24
7 結論.......................................................................................................................... 39
參考文獻:........................................................................................................................ 40

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