本文探討現金流不確定性及股利政策之關聯，研究樣本為2007年到2011中國製造業上市公司，根據F檢定和Hausman檢定的結果使用固定效果模型進行分析，之後使用羅吉斯迴歸探討現金流不確定性與股利發放的可能性。在確認了現金流不確定性與股利之關聯，本研究進一步根據公司的股利政策，將其進行分組，使用多項羅吉斯迴歸分析，分析現金流不確定性及公司特徵，造成股利政策選擇上不同的因素，最後本研究將所有自變數往前一期，來驗證現金流不確定性是否能預測股利政策的改變。
本研究實證後發現，當現金流不確定性愈大，公司不論在現金股利和股票股利的支付比例上皆下降，發放的可能性同時也會降低。此外，本研究證實了不發放股利的公司，現金流不確定性比至少有支付一種股利的公司都顯著來的大。在企業生命週期方面，本研究證實了處於開創期的公司會選擇不發放股利，或僅發放股票股利。最後，本研究證實了當現金流不確定性愈大，公司可能會選擇在下個年度停發現金股利，而當現金流不確定性愈小，公司可能會選擇在下個年度發放現金股利。

This paper investigates the relation between cash-flow uncertainty and dividend payout for Chinses manufacturing firms from 2007 to 2011. I use fixed effects models on the basis of hypothesis testing. Our evidence shows firms with high cash-flow uncertainty tend to pay low dividends. Next, using logit models to assess the impact of cash-flow uncertainty on the probability of paying dividends, the results strongly suggest that firms facing high levels of cash flow uncertainty are expected to cease dividend payout. By dividing firms into four categories according to its payout policy, I find the cash-flow uncertainty of firms do not pay dividends are significantly greater than firms at least pay one kind of dividends. I also find firms in the growth stage tend to not pay dividends or only pay stock dividends. The reason is that firms in the growth stage would like to save cash for future investment. Finally, I choose firms initiate or omit dividends over the 2007~2011 period and lag all the explanatory variables for one period to assess the predictive power for changes in dividend policy. The results suggest that firms with stable cash flows are more likely to initiate dividends, while firms with unstable cash flows are more likely to omit dividends.

目錄
論文審定書 i
誌謝 ii
摘要 iii
Abstract iv
目錄 v
圖次 vi
表次 vii
第一章、緒論 1
1.1、研究動機與目的 1
1.2、研究架構 2
第二章、文獻探討 3
2.1、股利政策相關研究 3
2.2、現金流不確定性 6
2.3、代理問題 6
2.4、假說建立 8
第三章、研究方法與假說建立 11
3.1、變數定義 11
3.2、研究方法與模型 14
第四章、實證結果 18
4.1、資料敘述 18
4.2、變數之敘述統計量 19
4.3、變數相關係數 22
4.4、假說檢定 25
4.5、固定效果模型分析結果 27
4.6、羅吉斯迴歸分析結果 30
4.7、股利政策與現金流不確定性 34
4.8、現金流不確定性對股利政策變化的預測能力 38
第五章、結論和建議 44
5.1、研究結論 44
5.2、研究貢獻 45
5.3、研究限制以及建議 46
第六章、參考文獻 47

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