波羅的海三國愛沙尼亞、拉脫維亞及立陶宛，在歷史上一直飽受俄羅斯的威脅，而俄羅斯卻是波羅的海三國重要能源供應國。本研究旨在探究三國政府如何在能源依賴具有敵意之供應國俄羅斯的狀況下，藉由本國的能源政策及與他國或國際組織上的合作，保衛自身能源安全。本文試圖分析三國自獨立建國以來的能源策略，利用小國行為理論觀察三國如何確保能源安全。另外，在波羅的海區域內的共同能源項目，探討三國在能源安全上的互動選擇競爭或合作的動機，其行為是否符合小國理論。
經檢視三國能源結構、能源依賴程度和能源來源，發現三國以「硬抗衡」和「庇護」策略，擬定能源安全戰略方針。一方面透過融入歐洲能源系統，多樣化能源來源和種類，興建與歐盟其他會員國連結之能源基礎措施，結束波羅的海「能源孤島」的困境；另一方面積極發展再生能源，增加能源自主性，進而脫離對俄羅斯能源的高度依賴。最後，在歐盟架構下的能源合作項目，三國決定合作或競爭的動機，來自於對本國利益的認知，若本身具備足夠能力，即使區域利益小於國家利益，仍會採取不合作的行為，以確保自身能源安全。

Russia has always been a major threat for Baltic States（Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania）, and Russia is the primary energy supplier of these three countries. This paper employed theories of small states security strategy as analytical framework, and aimed to analyze the energy strategies of the three countries since their independence. It also look at what does the need for cooperation or competition in energy security in the Baltic States’ region depend on?
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the energy policies of the Baltic States as viewed through the energy structure, energy dependence, energy security strategy of each country. We found that the three countries engaged in a “hard balancing” strategy and employ a shelter strategy to achieve energy security. On the one hand, they tried to integrate regional electricity and gas market between EU countries, ending the isolation of the Baltic States, which has called an energy island; on the other hand, renewable energy played a key role in helping the Baltics meet its energy needs. In energy cooperation projects under the EU framework, the motivation of the country to decide to cooperate or compete comes from the recognition of their own interests. if a state has ability to increase its energy security by implementing national energy infrastructure projects, even if the regional interests are less than the national interests, it chooses not to cooperate.

論文審訂書 ....................................................................................................................... i
誌謝 .................................................................................................................................. ii
摘要 ................................................................................................................................. iii
英文摘要 ......................................................................................................................... iv
目錄 .................................................................................................................................. v
圖次 ................................................................................................................................ vii
表次 ............................................................................................................................... viii
略語表 ............................................................................................................................. ix
第一章 緒論 .................................................................................................................. 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 .......................................................................................... 1
第二節 研究方法 ...................................................................................................... 6
第三節 文獻回顧 ...................................................................................................... 6
第四節 研究範圍 ................................................................................................... 24
第五節 研究限制 ................................................................................................... 25
第二章 三國能源安全分析 ........................................................................................ 27
第一節 三國能源安全發展趨勢 ............................................................................ 27
第二節 三國能源問題監測 .................................................................................... 50
第三章 三小國能源安全政策之發展 ........................................................................ 55
第一節 三國能源安全之挑戰 ................................................................................ 55
第二節 三國能源政策之發展 ................................................................................ 57
第三節 小結 ............................................................................................................ 81
第四章 三小國能源國際合作 .................................................................................... 84
第一節 波羅的海能源市場聯網計畫(BALTIC ENERGY MARKET INTERCONNECTION PLAN, BEMIP) .......................................................................... 85
第二節 天然氣管線(LNG TERMINAL) ............................................................... 93
第三節 立陶宛-瑞典海底電力電纜(NORDBALT) ............................................ 97
第四節 小結 ............................................................................................................ 99
第五章 結論 .............................................................................................................. 102
第一節 研究發現與討論 ...................................................................................... 102
第二節 研究限制與建議 ...................................................................................... 103
參考書目 ...................................................................................................................... 105
附錄 .............................................................................................................................. 110

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二、中文文獻
李昭賢，2016，〈威脅認知與國家行為: 一種區域安全複合體理論觀點〉，中興大學國際政治研究所學位論文。
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張嘉斌，2010，〈歐盟能源供應安全〉，《臺德學刊》，18: 58-78。
潘俐廷，2015，〈從永續發展角度探討歐盟與台灣能源安全及核能政策〉，國立中正大學戰略暨國際事務研究所學位論文。
蔡岳勳、陳仕偉，2014，〈歐美生質燃料法制與永續性標準規範之發展〉，《歐美研究》，44（4）：537-606。
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楊三億，2017，〈歐洲中小型國家安全政策: 策略選擇與轉型〉，《問題與研究》， 56（2）：31-66。
魏百谷，2010，〈小國與強鄰相處之道-以芬蘭和俄羅斯關係為例〉，《臺灣國際研究季刊》，6（1）：95-116。

三、網站資料
Eurostat http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat
Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia: Sākumlapa https://www.csb.gov.lv/en/statistika/db
International Energy Agency https://www.iea.org/
Statistics Estonia https://www.stat.ee/en
Statistics Lithuania - Oficialiosios statistikos portalas https://osp.stat.gov.lt/
Lietuvos Respublikos Seimas https://e-seimas.lrs.lt/portal/documentSearch/lt
World Energy Council https://www.worldenergy.org/