摘 要
北大西洋公約組織（North Atlantic Treaty Organization, NATO，簡稱北約）作為冷戰時期的產物，在1991年蘇聯解體後經歷了多次功能轉型，以應對外部環境的深刻變化。近年來，面對俄羅斯日益增長的威脅，北約官方不斷重申集體安全機制的重要性。然而，儘管成員國在理念上支持集體安全與合作，在實際應對潛在武力衝突時，仍可能出現一定程度的分歧。
本文旨在探討在俄羅斯威脅加劇的背景下，北約成員國人民對集體安全機制的看法。本研究採用量化方法，通過迴歸分析檢驗多項可能影響成員國對北約集體安全信任的因素，包括國家實力、民主水平、地緣族群、防禦聯盟，以及文化維度。研究結果顯示，文化維度是影響成員國看法的最穩定因素，其次為民主水平、防禦聯盟，以及軍事能力。通過全面分析，本文揭示了烏俄戰爭前後北約成員國對集體安全機制看法的變化及其背後的主要考量因素。

Abstract
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), a product of the Cold War era, has undergone multiple functional transformations since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 to adapt to significant changes in the external environment. In recent years, amid growing threats from Russia, NATO has repeatedly emphasized the importance of its collective security mechanism. However, while member states rhetorically advocate for collective security and cooperation, divergences may still arise when addressing potential armed conflicts.
This study aims to examine the perspectives of NATO member states' citizens on the collective security mechanism in the context of escalating threats from Russia. Utilizing quantitative methods and regression analysis, the research investigates various factors that may influence trust in NATO’s collective security, including national power, democratic governance, geopolitical and ethnic considerations, defense alliances, and cultural dimensions. The findings indicate that cultural dimensions are the most consistent factors, followed by levels of democracy, defense alliances, and military capacity. Through a comprehensive analysis, this study sheds light on the shifts in NATO member states’ views on collective security mechanisms before and after the Russia-Ukraine war and the underlying factors driving these perceptions.

論文審定書i
謝 誌ii
摘 要iv
ABSTRACTv
目 錄vi
圖 次viii
表 次ix
第一章 緒論1
第一節 研究動機1
第二節 研究目的3
第二章 文獻回顧5
第一節 集體安全制度5
一、 集體行動理論6
二、 集體安全的合作8
三、 集體安全的威懾10
第二節 集體安全信心13
一、 聯盟的可靠性15
二、 威攝的可信度17
第三節 北約集體安全觀點19
第三章 重要觀點與研究假設22
第一節 國家實力23
第二節 民主水準25
第三節 地緣族裔27
第四節 防禦聯盟30
第五節 文化維度33
第四章 量化研究設計37
第一節 研究架構37
第二節 變數說明38
一、 應變數40
二、 解釋變數41
第三節 研究方法47
第五章 北約國家的集體安全認知：量化分析49
第一節 協防意願分析50
第二節 出兵意願分析61
第三節 北約成員資格分析73
第四節 集體安全看法80
第六章 結論87
第一節 主要研究發現88
第二節 研究限制與未來研究展望90
參考資料92
附錄100

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