博碩士論文 etd-0118110-105845 詳細資訊


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姓名 林居鴻(Chu-Hung Lin) 電子郵件信箱 E-mail 資料不公開
畢業系所 資訊管理學系研究所(Information Management)
畢業學位 博士(Ph.D.) 畢業時期 98學年第1學期
論文名稱(中) 線上英式拍賣兩人競標之買家策略   
論文名稱(英) The Bidding Strategy of Two-people English Online Auction
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    摘要(中) 線上英式拍賣受到眾多買家的歡迎,創造比傳統拍賣更大的商機。然而其特性迥異於傳統拍賣:歷時長、幅員廣、風險高、情蒐容易、進出門檻低等,造成買家搜尋商品容易,得標困難,買家的交易成本結構,也由資訊收集階段轉為交易契約階段,顯示買家為了獲得預期的競標結果,更需要精準的決策工具。
    本研究旨在為競標者提出最佳買家策略,分為三個維度:順序決策(要先出價嗎?)、進場決策(出價或放棄?)、出價決策(增額多少?)。本研究將競標者簡化為2人,在討論三個維度的策略組合時,以「底價、最小遞增金額」作為賣場的屬性,「願付價格、出價成本」作為競標者的屬性,藉以觀察這些屬性參數,對拍賣結果的影響,包括誰得標、回合數、成交價、得標和放棄效益、得標率,以及效益期望值等,以歸納出,不同特性的買家,適合採用何種策略組合。
    研究結果顯示,在順序決策方面,先、後出價者,分別有其弱優勢策略,然而其對競標結果的影響,低於進場決策;在進場決策方面,放棄效益恆以保本進場較高,競標回合、得標機率恆以樂觀進場較高,而得標效益與效益期望值不必然何者較高;在出價決策方面,緩增及躍進出價各有價值,當競爭舒緩或是商品價格分歧時,宜採緩增出價,反之,宜採躍進出價。與以往文獻相較,本研究產生數個新結論,包括線上英式拍賣不總是具有交易效率、躍進出價亦是理性行為及最佳出價額等。
    藉由本研究之模式,競標者得以視自身條件,以及標的物屬性,在競標前即推估出得標機率及期望效益,並針對不同競價情境,找出自己所適合的競價策略。
    摘要(英) The English online auction creates great business opportunities. However, it’s different from traditional English auction in long bidding time, wide area, high risk, massive information, and low switching cost. It makes bidders easy to search information of the goods but difficult to win the auction. The bidders' transaction cost structure has changed from information phase to agreement phase. So, the bidders need more precise supporting tools to help them make decisions.
    The aim of this research is to investigate two-person optimal bidding strategies under three dimensions of the decision space: the sequence decision (bid firstly or later), the bid decision (bid or quit), and the jump decision (minimum increase or jump bid). It is assumed that there are two bidders competing in one auction. Variables associated with the auction system include the floor price and the minimum increase. Variables associated with the bidders include the private value of the bidding object, and the cost of bid per turn. Strategies were evaluated based on the following criteria: who wins, how many turns to win the bid, the deal price, the utility of the winner and the loser, the probability of winning, and the expected utility.
    The results indicate that every strategy has its advantages and disadvantages under certain conditions. This research provides guiding rules for the bidders to choose a better strategy.
    關鍵字(中)
  • 英式拍賣
  • 線上拍賣
  • 買家策略
  • 順序決策
  • 進場決策
  • 出價決策
  • 關鍵字(英)
  • Jump Decision
  • Sequence Decision
  • Bid Decision
  • Bidding Strategy
  • English Auction
  • Online Auction
  • 論文目次 目錄 1
    圖目錄 3
    表目錄 5
    誌謝 7
    摘要 8
    Abatract 9
    第1章 緒論 10
    1.1 背景說明 10
    1.2 研究動機與目的 16
    1.3 論文架構 17
    第2章 文獻回顧 18
    2.1 拍賣理論的發展 18
    2.2 交易市場的效率與柏拉圖最適 19
    2.3 不對稱競爭與競價者出價行為 20
    2.4 決策準則 21
    2.5 最適出價策略 23
    2.6 拍賣成本、願付價格與效益 24
    2.7 贏家的詛咒 27
    2.8 躍進出價與緩增出價 28
    2.9 本研究與相關文獻之關係 29
    第3章 競標模式 31
    3.1 競標者的決策組合 31
    3.2 模式變數定義 35
    3.3 出價流程圖 36
    第4章 情境分析 41
    4.1 S1:兩方均採「樂觀進場、緩增出價」 41
    4.2 S2:雙方均「樂觀進場」,A「躍進出價」,B「緩增出價」 59
    4.3 S10:雙方均採「保本進場、緩增出價」策略 69
    4.4 各情境總歸納 80
    第5章 結論 85
    5.1 研究發現 85
    5.2 討論 86
    5.3 研究限制 87
    5.4 研究之過去與未來 89
    參考文獻 92
    附錄 99
    附錄.1 S3:雙方均「樂觀進場」,A「緩增出價」,B「躍進出價」 99
    附錄.2 S4:雙方均「緩增出價」,A「保本進場」,B「樂觀進場」 101
    附錄.3 S5:A「保本進場、躍進出價」,B「樂觀進場、緩增出價」 115
    附錄.4 S6:A「保本進場、緩增出價」,B「樂觀進場、躍進出價」 117
    附錄.5 S7:A「樂觀進場」,B「保本進場」,兩人「緩增出價」 123
    附錄.6 S8:A「樂觀進場、躍進出價」,B「保本進場、緩增出價」 132
    附錄.7 S9:A「樂觀進場、緩增出價」,B「保本進場、躍進出價」 138
    附錄.8 S11:A「保本進場、躍進出價」,B「保本進場、緩增出價」 140
    附錄.9 S12:A「保本進場、緩增出價」,B「保本進場、躍進出價」 142
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  • 口試日期 2010-01-04 繳交日期 2010-01-18

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