博碩士論文 etd-0212108-153307 詳細資訊


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姓名 孟慶君(Ching-Chun Meng) 電子郵件信箱 nancymeng168@gmail.com
畢業系所 資訊管理學系研究所(Information Management)
畢業學位 碩士(Master) 畢業時期 96學年第1學期
論文名稱(中) 散裝航運燃油補給決策支援系統之探討
論文名稱(英) A Decision Support System of Bunker Oil Supply
in Bulk Carriers Shipping
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    摘要(中) 海運產業屬於國際性事業,對一國經濟貿易發展扮演極重要的角色,可視為一國國力延伸之象徵,亦可賺取大量的外部資金。且其不會為國內製造環保、噪音與擁擠等社會負面效應,是國內其他製造產業所無法比擬的。尤其台灣為海島,更應透過豐富的海洋資源,致力對於海運事業之研究,必可帶來無限的商機與活力,達到立足台灣放眼全球的胸懷與信心。
    國際海洋運輸產業,可概分為不定期散裝航運運輸與定期船貨櫃運輸。其中不定期散裝航運運輸,大多以整船承運一或二家貨主之散裝貨載,近似完全競爭市場,為求最大利潤以不限定固定航線與貨載,選擇最佳營運操作與最佳船舶配置。而定期船貨櫃運輸,則有固定航線、固定靠泊港口與固定費率表,提供眾多託運人服務。
    船運燃油補給的成本,佔了航運運輸變動成本極高的比例。且國際燃油之價格不斷攀升,使得燃油所佔成本不斷增加。以國際船用燃油MF-180為例,油價從1999年1月台灣的牌價為US$74/MT不斷持續上漲,至2007年10月已出現US$500/MT以上的牌價。依據國際能源署(IEA)在2007年7月發表的「國際能源署中期石油市場報告」中指出,全球將在5年內面臨石油供給短缺,預估油價仍將持續上漲。尤其是散裝航運運輸為不定期船航運,不限定固定航線與貨載,在作燃油補給時,需更有效率的估算決策加油港、加油量與加油成本,以求運輸之最小變動成本,獲取最大利潤。
    本研究透過對於航次燃油補給文獻探討及專家訪談,決策支援系統文獻探討與使用雛型開發法,完成模式建立及系統分析設計,實際建立散裝航運燃油補給決策支援系統之雛型,提供航次之平均航速、加油量與加油港之建議方案。系統的驗證則透過建議方案與實際案例的比對,評估決策支援系統之效益。且透過使用者的回饋來修改雛型,增加系統的完整性,以提供散裝航運業者未來對於燃油補給決策支援系統建置之參考。
    摘要(英) Shipping industry belongs to an international business. It plays an extremely important role in the economic and trade development of a country, so it can be regarded as a symbol of extension of the national strength of a country. Besides, it earns a lot of foreign capital for the country, but never creates any negative effects to the society domestically, such as environmental protection, noise, congestion, and so on. This is something that other manufacturing industries are incomparable with. Especially that Taiwan is an island, Taiwan should be engaged in the studies of shipping business through the rich marine resources. Then, unlimited business opportunities and vitality must be brought to Taiwan, achieving the aspiration of and confidence in standing in Taiwan but looking far to the world.
      
    International marine transportation business can be divided into irregular bulk shipping and regular container shipping. Between them, irregular bulk shipping is mostly the loading of the bulk cargoes by one or two consignors in one whole vessel. It is almost a completely competitive market. In order to obtain the greatest profit through the unlimited shipping lines and cargo loading, the best business operation ways and the best vessel allocation should be selected. For regular container shipping, services are provided to a great number of consignors with fixed shipping lines, fixed anchoring harbors and fixed rate.
    The cost of refueling of shipping industry occupies an extremely high proportion of the variable cost of marine transportation. When the price of the international fuel rises continuously, the cost of fuel increases accordingly. Taking the international vessel-use fuel MF-180 for example, the market quotation of oil in Taiwan on Jan. 6, 1999 was US$74/MT. After that, the price rose continuously. Down to Oct. 2007, there appeared the market quotation of oil at above US$500/MT. According to the “Medium Term Oil Market Report of International Energy Agency (IEA)” announced on Jul. 9, 2007, the whole world would face the shortage of oil supply in five years, and the oil price was estimated to be rising continuously. Bulk marine transportation is irregular shipping without the fixing of any regular shipping lines and cargo loading. If refueling is to be made to vessels, there should be more efficient estimation and decision on the refueling harbor, refueling volume and refueling cost so as to achieve the minimum variable cost and acquire the greatest profit.
      
    Through review of the literature about the refueling of voyages as well as the interviews with experts, the paper investigates the literature of the decision support system, and uses the prototype development method to complete the model construction and the analytical design of system, practically establish a prototype of refuel decision support system for bulk shipping, and provide the solutions of average sailing speed of voyages, refueling volume and refueling harbor. After the results are compared with those of the actual cases, the paper evaluates the effects of the decision support system. Through the users’ feedback, the prototype is revised to increase the completeness of the system, which provides a reference for the bulk shipping proprietors in constructing a refueling decision support system in future.
    關鍵字(中)
  • 決策支援系統
  • 散裝航運
  • 燃油補給
  • 關鍵字(英)
  • decision support system
  • refueling
  • bulk shipping
  • 論文目次 目錄索引
    第一章 緒論 1
    第一節 研究背景 1
    第二節 研究動機 2
    第三節 研究目的 2
    第四節 研究限制 2
    第五節 研究流程 3
    第二章 文獻探討 5
    第一節 散裝航運業燃油補給 5
    第二節 決策支援系統 16
    第三章 模型建立 26
    第一節 問題與決策目標分析 27
    第二節 基本資料變項設定 27
    第三節 建立假設 28
    第四節 找出變項之間的關係 29
    第五節 建立電腦程式 36
    第四章 系統分析與設計 43
    第一節系統分析 43
    第二節 系統架構 48
    第三節 資料庫設計 59
    第四節 系統開發工具及執行環境 61
    第五章 系統驗證與評估改善 62
    第一節 系統驗證 62
    第二節 系統評估改善 66
    第六章 結論與建議 67
    參考文獻 68
    附錄一 需求訪談文字稿 70
    訪談公司背景介紹 70
    專家訪談記錄 71
    參考文獻 參考文獻
    一、中文部份(依年度排列如下)
    1、周和平,地文航海,周氏兄弟出版社,1991。
    2、趙 鈞,貨物作業,幼獅文化,1997。
    3、王淑滿、鍾政棋、戴輝煌,模糊環境下航次估算模式之構建與分析,2000。
    4、毛衛斌,關於船舶航行期間燃油成本的研究,2000。
    5、林光、張志清,航業經營與管理,航貿文化,2001。
    6、胡正華,航次決策支援系統分析與設計,世界海運, 2002。
    7、張署,船舶營運航速的優化分析,2004。
    8、陳永順,散裝海運經營學,文笙書局,2005。
    9、林信惠、黃明祥、王文良,軟體專案管理,智勝出  版,2005。
    10、呂傳增等,船舶柴油機,2006。
    11、楊曜穗、張啟隱、朱有為、盧華安,定期船船期延 遲之追趕策略分析,航運季刊,2006。
    12、梁定澎,決策支援系統與企業智慧(再版),智勝出  版,2006。
    13、劉昱良,文件導向決策支援系統建置之研究,2006
    14、林鳳寧,決策支援系統(二版),碩博文化,2007。
    15、蔣坤郎,運用決策支援系統進行建設公司土地開發  評估模式探討,2007。
    16、台灣中油燃油油品價目,http://www.cpc.com.tw 
    二、英文部份
    1.Cullinane,K.P.B.(1995), “A Portfolio Analysis of Market Investments in Dry Bulk Sipping,”Transportation Research Part B, pp.181- 200.
    2.David R. Arnott (1998), “A Framework for Understanding Decision Support Systems Evolution.”
    3.Edward A. Stohr and Benn Konsynski (eds.) (1992),” A Review and Critique of DSS.”
    4.Gorton,L.,Ihre R.and Sandevarn,A.(1999), “Shipbroking and Chartering Practice,5th Ed”,Lloys’s of London Press Ltd.,pp.129-145.
    5.James W. Dean, Jr. and Mark P. Sharfman (1996),” Does Decision Process Matter? A Study of Strategic Decision-Making Effectiveness”, Academy of Management Journal Vol. 39. No. 2, 368-396.
    6.Jen-Her Wu, Her-Sen Doong, Ching-Chang Lee (1992),” A methodology for designing form-based decision support systems,” ELSEVIER.
    7.Power, D.J. (2007),” A Brief History of Decision Support Systems. DSS Resources . COM, World Wide Web”, http://DSSResources.COM/history/dsshistory.html, version 4.08
    8.Ralph H.Sprague, Jr. (1980),” A Framework for the Development of Decision Support Systems”, MIS Quarterly.
    9.Ralph L. Keeney (1982), “Decision Analysis: An Overview” , Operations Research Vol. 30. No. 5.
    10.Silver, M.S. (1991), “Decisional Guidance for Computer-Based Decision Support”, MIS Quarterly.
    11.BunkerWorld, “http://www.bunkerworld.com”
    12.NYMEX,” http://www.nymex.com/index.aspx”
    13.PortWorld, “http://www.portworld.com”
    口試委員
  • 吳仁和 - 召集委員
  • 林芬慧 - 委員
  • 林信惠 - 指導教授
  • 口試日期 2008-01-18 繳交日期 2008-02-12

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