2009年，希臘債務危機爆發。為避免國家破產，希臘總理帕潘德里歐決定和三駕馬車合作解決危機，但此舉引來希臘人民的不滿以及政黨的反對。最終帕潘德里歐辭職下台，臨時政府組成。此點來看，帕潘德里歐在談判中傾向於穩定。2012年，新政府成立並堅守與三駕馬車的協議。當希臘兩大黨都表態支持緊縮政策的狀況下，激進左翼聯盟的領袖齊普拉斯反對緊縮政策，獲得希臘人民的好感。

2015年，齊普拉斯勝選，上任後不僅拒絕執行緊縮政策，更要求與三駕馬車重新談判。但在此期間，齊普拉斯仍遵守還債的義務。在歷經六個月的衝突後，齊普拉斯仍是簽下新的協議，且比先前更為嚴苛。從此點來看，相較於帕潘德里歐，齊普拉斯在債務政治談判中更容易發生衝突。綜上所述，本文認為帕潘德里歐與齊普拉斯在談判過程中的差異在於民粹程度的高低，換句話說民粹程度的高低導致領導人在行為上的不同，所以影響債務政治談判的過程。民粹程度高的領導人會比民粹程度低的領導人更容易導致衝突的發生。

In 2009, Greece debt crisis occurred. In order to avoid bankruptcy, Greek Prime Minister Papandreou decided to cooperate with the European Troika. Papandreou used austerity policies in exchange for bailout funds, but the Greek people were dissatisfied with this and even rioted in the streets. In 2011, Papandreou used his political career to ensure the operation of the nation. Therefore, Papandreou put the country before the individual in the negotiation.

Among all the Greek politicians, Tsipras was a very popular person among the Greek people because of his opposition to austerity. After taking office in 2015, Tsipras not only refused the austerity policy, but also asked the European Troika to renegotiate. Although Tsipras had a conflict with the troika at the beginning, he still compromised in the end. In summary, Tsipras appeared to be more unstable in the negotiation process.

The difference between the two prime ministers lies in the course of action. This article believes that the two prime ministers’ behavioral styles are influenced by populism. In other words, the level of populism affects the leadership’s style of doing things. Therefore, leaders with high levels of populism will be more intense in the negotiation process than leaders with low levels of populism.

論文審定書 iii
中文摘要 iv
英文摘要 v
英文簡稱縮寫 vi
表次 vii
第一章 1
希臘債務危機的起源與轉折 1
第二章 6
國家債務的政治經濟學 6
一、政府與債務的關係 6
二、國際層次與國內政治制度 9
三、意識形態以及執政者的考量因素 11
四、小結 15
第三章 17
民粹領導人的特徵與債務政治的結合 17
一、債務政治的運作 18
二、民粹的產生條件 19
三、民粹與債務政治運作的結合 22
第四章 24
研究方法與設計 24
第五章 29
帕潘德里歐與三駕馬車的合作過程 29
一、帕潘德里歐的選前言論 30
二、帕潘德里歐執政期間的談判 37
三、小結 51
第六章 52
齊普拉斯與三駕馬車的對抗過程 52
一、齊普拉斯選舉前後的言行 52
二、齊普拉斯執政期間的談判 69
三、小結 85
第七章 87
希臘個案反思與結論 87
一、主要研究發現 87
二、研究限制與後續 90
參考文獻 91
一、專書 91
二、期刊 92
三、媒體資料 92
四、官方資料 114

一、專書
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Hinich, Melvin J. and Michael C. Munger. 1996. Ideology and the Theory of Political Choice. USA: The University Michigan.
Mercille, Julien., and Enda Murphy. 2015. Deepening Neoliberalism, Austerity, and Crisis: Europe’s Treasure Ireland. London: Palgrave Macmillan.
Millet, Damien, and Eric Toussaint. 2004. Who Owes Who? 50 Questions About World Debt. Fernwood Publishing Ltd.
Moffitt, Benjamin. 2016. The Global Rise of Populism: Performance, Political Style, and Representation. California: Stanford University Press.
Pappas, Takis S. 2019. Populism and Liberal Democracy: A Comparative and Theoretical Analysis. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Reinhart, Carmen M., and Kenneth S. Rogoff. 2010. This time is different: eight centuries of financial folly.
Roos, Jerome E. 2019. Why not default? The Political Economy of Sovereign Debt. New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
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Stasavage, David. 2003. Public Debt and the Birth of the Democratic State: France and Great Britain 1688-1789. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Tomz, Michael. 2007. Reputation and International Cooperation: Sovereign Debt Across Three Centuries. New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
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二、期刊

Borensztein, Eduardo, and Ugo Panizza. 2008. “The Costs of Sovereign Default.” Working Paper 8(238): 2-50.
Breen, Michael, and Iain McMenamin. 2013. “Political Institutions, Credible Commitment, and Sovereign Debt in Advanced Economies.” International Studies Quarterly 57(4): 842-854.
Cammack, Paul. 2000. “The Resurgence of Populism in Latin America.” Bulletin of Latin American Research 19(2000): 149-161.
Hawkins, Kirk A. 2009. “Is Chávez Populist? : Measuring Populist Discourse in Comparative Perspective.” Comparative Political Studies 42(8): 1040-1067.
Howard P. Lehman and Jennifer L. McCoy. 1992. “The Dynamics of the Two-Level Bargaining Game: The 1988 Brazilian Debt Negotiations” World Politics 44(4): 660-644.
Nooruddin, Irfan, and Joel W. Simmons. 2006. “The Politics of Hard Choices: IMF Programs and Government Spending.” International Organization 60(4): 1001-1033.
Pappas, Takis S. 2013. “Why Greece Failed.” Journal of Demcracy 24(2): 31-45
Seawright, Jason. and John Gerring. 2013. “Case Selection Techniques in Case Study Research: A Menu of Qualitative and Quantitative Options.” Political Research Quarterly 61(2): 294-308

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四、官方資料

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