俄羅斯是世界上領土最大的國家，異常超越他國，並非偶然，除了天時地利，更反應出其強烈的擴張主義。俄羅斯有歷史以來，曾受蒙古統治二百年，經歷過危急存亡的外侮侵擾，因缺乏天然屏障的保護，使之高度重視安全議題。地理特徵與安全感的稀缺結合出俄羅斯敏感的地緣政治觀與視擴張為自衛的安全政策，開啟其緩衝地帶與天然屏障的追尋之路。
　歷史上俄羅斯嚮往於西方繁榮，渴望參與歐洲事務，為成為歐洲大國，其參考西方發展模式，得到俄羅斯需要水域的結論，因此出海口、不凍港，和水體屏障成為其地緣戰略中的核心利益。基於現代新國家安全觀的轉換，俄羅斯亦將能源與經濟的安全列入地緣戰略的優先。
　本文以歷史縱深來探討俄羅斯各階段的地緣戰略之一致性，有了全面的認識後，將焦點聚於俄烏兩國，分析在俄羅斯的視角下，烏克蘭具有哪些戰略價值？因為烏克蘭親歐而可能喪失對烏克蘭的掌控，將對俄羅斯的地緣戰略產生哪些不確定性與安全困境？在現實主義的途徑下，爬梳其中內涵，以詮釋俄烏兩國無可避免的衝突成因。

　It’s not coincident that Russia is the country in the world having the largest territory, exceptionally beyond other countries. Besides the right timing and right place, it reflects its intense expansionism. Since the beginning of Russia’s history, due to the dearth of natural barrier, it was once ruled by Mongol Empire over 200 years and suffering from several external invasions which caused Russia’s existence at stake, leading security issues highly valued by it. Russia’s geographic features and scarcity of security form into its sensitive geopolitical notions and security policies, which it regards expansion as self-defense, launching its will for seeking buffer zones and natural barriers.
　The attraction of western prosperity and eagerness of engaging in Europe’s affairs drove Russia’s ambition of being great power in Europe. The development patterns of the west enlightened Russia the importance of water fields, therefore, it considered the gaining of sea gates, ice free ports, and water barriers as the core interests in its geostrategy. In addition, Russia took energy and economic security as priority of its geostrategy on account of the evolution of modern national security concepts.
　This article discusses each period of Russia’s geostrategies lying in its historical depth to discover their consistency. After that, it focuses on the connections between Russia and Ukraine, analyzing what strategic values Ukraine holds under Russia’s aspects? Russia may lose its control over Ukraine because of Ukraine’s progressively increased pro-Europeanism and the conditions will generate what uncertainty and security dilemmas against Russia’s geostrategy? By means of realistic approach, this article sorts out the reasons why Russia has to act offensive against Ukraine.

論文審定書 ....................................................... i
謝詞.............................................................. ii
摘要..............................................................iii
英文摘要 ......................................................... iv
第一章、緒論...................................................... 1
第一節 研究動機與目的............................................. 1
第二節 文獻回顧................................................... 6
第三節 研究方法................................................... 10
第四節 研究範圍與限制............................................. 12
第五節 章節安排................................................... 14
第二章、理論探討：地緣政治理論與現實主義.......................... 16
第一節 地緣政治理論............................................... 16
第二節 現實主義理論............................................... 31
第三節 安全困境概念之補充......................................... 42
第三章、俄羅斯歷史上的地緣戰略.................................... 55
第一節 沙俄時期-帝國的擴張........................................ 55
第二節 蘇聯時期-兩極的對抗........................................ 65
第三節 聯邦時期-重振的大國........................................ 89
第四章、烏克蘭對俄羅斯地緣戰略的影響..............................115
第一節 烏克蘭立場的擺盪：克拉夫丘克到波羅申科.....................115
第二節 俄羅斯視角下烏克蘭的戰略價值...............................127
第三節 俄羅斯面對烏克蘭親歐的安全困境.............................138
第五章、結論.......................................................146
參考資料 .........................................................152

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四、 翻譯文獻
山謬．杭亭頓，黃裕美譯，1997，《文明衝突與世界秩序的重建》，臺北市：聯經出版社，初版。
列寧著，中共中央編譯局譯，2017，《列寧全集：第二版增訂版》，北京：人民出版社。
亨利．基辛格著，胡利平、林華、曹愛菊譯，2015，《世界秩序》，北京：中信出版。
杰弗里．帕克著，劉從德譯，2003，《地緣政治學：過去，現在和未來》，北京：新華出版社。
茲比格紐．布熱津斯基著，中國國際問題研究所譯，2010，《大棋局：美國的首要地位及其地緣戰略》，上海人民出版社。
索爾．科恩著，嚴春松譯，2011，《地緣政治學：國際關係的地理學》，上海：上海社會科學院出版社。
基姆著，人民大學編譯室譯，1960，《社會主義時期蘇聯史1917～1957年》，北京：生活．讀書．新知三聯書店。
梁讚諾夫斯基、斯坦伯格著，楊燁、卿文輝譯，2007，《俄羅斯史：第7版》，上海人民出版社。
羅伯特．卡普蘭著，涵樸譯，2013，《即將到來的地緣戰爭》，廣東省：廣東人民出版社。
五、 網路資料
中文：
Mark Lin，2020，〈中國網友大舉「出征」海參崴，官媒為何悶不吭聲？看懂俄羅斯「征服東方市」的百年發家史〉換日線，https://crossing.cw.com.tw/article/13688，檢索日：2022年4月18日。
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中央通訊社，2021，〈俄羅斯軍隊集結烏克蘭邊境情勢升溫 兩國恩怨一次看〉https://www.cna.com.tw/news/firstnews/202112040221.aspx，檢索日：2022年1月4日
中央通訊社，2022，〈北溪2號天然氣管線是什麼？與烏克蘭危機有何關係？爭議一次看〉。https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aopl/202202230061.aspx。 檢索日：2022年5月16日。
中國石油天然氣集團有限公司，2019，〈蘇聯、俄羅斯石油工業發展曆程〉，http://www.cnpc.com.cn:81/syzs/cyg/201912/f094d82515314463bc9c2c7a4671b77b.shtml。檢索日：2022年4月22日。
中華人民共和國商務部，2020，〈烏克蘭成為全球第一大葵花籽油出口國〉，http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/i/jyjl/e/202002/20200202939994.shtml。檢索日：2022年5月11日。
白育綸，2022，〈俄烏開戰氖氣「斷氣」？半導體恐花10倍錢「買氣」〉，遠見雜誌，https://www.gvm.com.tw/article/88021。檢索日：2022年5月11日。
吳建卿編，2014，〈巴庫油田的興衰〉，中國石油天然氣集團有限公司，http://www.cnpc.com.cn/syzs/sysh/201409/87378ee67cc846a683c739f510df4e68.shtml。檢索日：2022年4月22日。
吳凱琳，2021，〈俄國重兵集結烏克蘭邊境　普丁到底在盤算什麼？〉，天下雜誌：https://www.cw.com.tw/article/5119335，檢索日：2022年1月6日。
前瞻經濟學人，2021，〈2021年中俄貿易創新高 一文瞭解中俄雙邊貿易市場現狀與發展趨勢〉，https://www.qianzhan.com/analyst/detail/220/210525-21630839.html。檢索日：2022年4月30日。
連弘宜，2018，〈波羅申科執政下的俄烏關係〉，臺北論壇，https://www.taipeiforum.org.tw/article_d.php?lang=tw&tb=3&cid=18&id=4054。檢索日：2022年3月17日。
張福昌，2021，〈美歐聯盟的困境：美德俄「北溪二號」戰略衝突的視角〉，台北論壇，https://reurl.cc/M0zMY3。檢索日：2022年4月29日。
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聯合新聞網，2022，〈俄羅斯極權下被分裂的民族故事（中）：克里米亞的歷史脈絡〉，https://udn.com/news/story/12674/6123750，檢索日期：2022年3月16日。
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Carpenter, T. G., 2022, “Many predicted Nato expansion would lead to war. Those warnings were ignored”. The Guardian. https://reurl.cc/Rre0me. Access: May 17, 2022.
Cohen, A., 2019, “As Russia Closes In On Crimea's Energy Resources, What Is Next For Ukraine?”. Forbes. https://reurl.cc/d2m78y. Access: May 11, 2022.
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Conte, N., 2022, “Visualizing Ukraine’s Top Trading Partners and Products”. Visual Capitalist. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-ukraines-top-trading-partners-and-products/. Access: May 11, 2022.
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French, R. A., 2022, “Kyiv”, Encyclopedia Britannica. https://www.britannica.com/place/Kyiv. Access: April 15, 2022.
Gontmakher, E., 2021, “Russian exports in focus”. Geopolitical Intelligence Services. https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/russian-exports-2020/. Access: May 15, 2022.
Kramar, O., 2017, “Finding the balance: What it takes to upgrade Ukraine’s military”, The Ukrainian Week. https://ukrainianweek.com/Politics/191186. Access: May 17, 2022.
Kramer, A. E., 2009, “Russia Cuts Gas, and Europe Shivers”. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/07/world/europe/07gazprom.html?msclkid=ba313297cecd11ec99ab131a9fa2b6ab. Access: April 29, 2022.
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Mohan, G., 2022, “Ukraine: The economic significance for Russia and the West | Deep Dive”, India Today. https://www.indiatoday.in/news-analysis/story/ukraine-the-economic-significance-for-russia-and-the-west-deep-dive-1916525-2022-02-22. Access: May 12, 2022.
Osterreichische National Bank, 2022, “The Russian economy and world trade in energy: Dependence of Russia larger than dependence on Russia”. https://www.oenb.at/dam/jcr:c7d95c7b-c469-4834-ac94-98554c5e6f5f/2022-04-15-russian-economy-and-world-trade-in-energy.pdf. Access: May 15, 2022.
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Reuters, 2007, “UPDATE 1-Russia's Gazprom ups Shtokman reserves to 3.8 tcm”. https://www.reuters.com/article/gazprom-shtokman-idUSL1589543420071115?edition-redirect=uk. Access: April 29, 2022.
Saradzhyan, S., 2010, “The Role of China in Russia’s Military Thinking” Harvard Kennedy school: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/role-china-russias-military-thinking. Access: April 24, 2022.
Sharma, S., 2022, “Russo-Ukraine Conflict-View from the Black Sea and Eastern Mediterranean”, Vivekananda International Foundation. https://reurl.cc/Rrevyg. Access: May 18, 2022.
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Soldatkin V. & Osborn A., 2021, “Putin warns Russia will act if NATO crosses its red lines in Ukraine” REUTERS, https://www.reuters.com/markets/stocks/putin-warns-russia-will-act-if-nato-crosses-its-red-lines-ukraine-2021-11-30/. Access: March 16, 2022.
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The World Factbook, “Field Listing - Military expenditures”. https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/military-expenditures/?msclkid=f55002c7d0a711ec93acf1ed364deef9. Access: April 30, 2022.
The Washington Post, 2014, “Transcript: Vladimir Putin’s April 17 Q&A”. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/transcript-vladimir-putins-april-17-qanda/2014/04/17/ff77b4a2-c635-11e3-8b9a-8e0977a24aeb_story.html?noredirect=on. Access: May 18, 2022.
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Trading Economics, “Weapons Sales - By Country”. https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/weapons-sales. Access: May 14, 2022.
Trofimov Y., Cullison A., Grove T., 2022.” Russian Proxies in Eastern Ukraine Mobilize Troops, Kill Two Ukrainian Soldiers.” The Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/articles/breakaway-regions-in-ukraine-issue-call-up-orders-as-russia-tests-missiles-11645277438?mod=hp_lead_pos1. Access: February 19, 2022.
TRTWORLD, 2022, “What’s so special about Ukraine’s black soil?”. https://reurl.cc/Kb0n4R. Access: May 11, 2022.
Ukraine Invest, 2022, “Mining”. https://ukraineinvest.gov.ua/industries/mining/. Access: May 12, 2022.
Ukrinform, 2022,“Ukraine loses 80% of oil and gas deposits in Black Sea due to annexation of Crimea”, https://reurl.cc/ZAyXl3. Access: May 11, 2022.
六、 官方文件
中文：
中華人民共和國駐俄羅斯大使館，2004，〈中俄關係史上的重要里程碑 - 劉古昌大使在俄報撰文紀念《中俄睦鄰友好合作條約》簽署3周年〉https://www.mfa.gov.cn/ce/cerus//chn/sgxw/t143420.htm。檢索日：2022年4月27日。
英文：
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Administration of the President of Russia, 2022, “Telephone conversation with President of France Emmanuel Macron”. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67880. Access: June 12, 2022.
Boris Yeltsin Presidential Library, 1991, “The Belavezha Accords Signed”. https://www.prlib.ru/en/history/619792. Access: April 26, 2022.
Churchill W. S., 1946, “The Sinews of Peace (‘Iron Curtain Speech’)” International Churchill Society. https://winstonchurchill.org/resources/speeches/1946-1963-elder-statesman/the-sinews-of-peace/. Access: April 20, 2022.
European Commission for Democracy Through Law, 1994, “Agreements establishing the Commonwealth of Independent States[Done at Minsk, December 8,1991, and done at Alma Alta, December 21,1991]” Council of Europe. https://reurl.cc/x99Yx4. Access: April 26, 2022.
International Energy Agency, 2021, “Ukraine Energy Profile”, https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/ac51678f-5069-4495-9551-87040cb0c99d/UkraineEnergyProfile.pdf. Access: May 16, 2022.
Kennan, G., 1946, “February 22, 1946. George Kennan’s ‘Long Telegram’”. Wilson Center Digital Archive. https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/116178.pdf. Access: April 22, 2022.
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Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation, 2010, “Energy Strategy of Russia: For the Period Up to 2030” Moscow: Institute of Energy Strategy. http://www.energystrategy.ru/projects/docs/ES-2030_(Eng).pdf. Access: April 29, 2022.
NATO, “Founding Act”, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_25468.htm. Access: April 24, 2022.
NATO, “Founding treaty”, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_67656.htm. Access: April 20, 2022.
NATO, “NATO LEADERS: LORD ISMAY”, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/declassified_137930.htm. Access: April 24, 2022.
NATO, “NATO-Russia Relations: A New Quality”, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_19572.htm. Access: April 24, 2022.
NATO, “Press conference”, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_190666.htm. Access: April 24, 2022.
NATO, “The North Atlantic Treaty”, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm. Access: April 24, 2022.
Office of the Historian of the United States Department of State within the Foreign Service Institute, “The Cuban Missile Crisis, October 1962” https://history.state.gov/milestones/1961-1968/cuban-missile-crisis. Access: April 23, 2022.
Putin, V. V., 2007, “Munich Conference on Security Policy”. President of Russia. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/24034. Access: April 30, 2022.
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七、 學位論文
中文：
宋家璿，2012，〈彼得大帝與凱薩琳大帝時期俄國領土擴張之比較研究〉，台北市：國立政治大學俄羅斯研究所碩士論文。
林雅鴻，2018，〈集體安全條約組織的功能演變—從歷史制度論探討〉新北市：淡江大學歐洲研究所碩士班碩士論文。
凃奕豪，2017，〈中國「絲綢之路經濟帶」對歐亞經濟合作之影響〉。中山大學政治學研究所碩士論文。
施力權，2010，〈克里米亞在烏俄關係與烏克蘭內外政策中地位之研究(1991～2009)〉，台北市：淡江大學俄羅斯研究所碩士班碩士論。
徐振珉，2019，〈地緣政治與烏克蘭安全策略〉，台中市：國立中興大學國際政治研究所碩士論文。
黃健良，2010，〈論權力在談判中之運用－理論與個案探討〉台北市：國立台灣大學管理學院碩士在職專班高階公共管理組碩士論文。
黃振祥，2004，〈冷戰後時期「中俄戰略協作夥伴關係」之形成與探析〉，臺北市：國立政治大學外交學系碩士論文。
張文賢，2007，〈中印關係中的地緣政治因素研究〉，台北市：國立政治大學國家安全與大陸研究所碩士論文。
張鑑昇，2004，〈後冷戰時期北約角色轉變之研究〉台中市：國立中興大學國際政治研究所碩士論文。
楊坦璟，2021，〈強權競爭下的烏克蘭安全策略選擇〉，台中市：國立中興大學國際政治研究所碩士論文。
戴宗翰，2011，〈北極圈海域爭端之研究－Waltz結構現實主義理論之檢視與評析〉，臺北市：中國文化大學政治學系博士學位論文。
英文：
Bemish, B., 2015, “The Two-Headed Eagle: Faces of Russian Foreign Policy”. Air University Maxwell Air Force Base United States.