外國勞工在公共基礎建設中扮演的角色日益重要，但在公共投資相關的文獻中，幾乎沒有針對此現象進行分析，故本文建構兩部門的動態隨機一般均衡模型，研究政府雇用外國勞工從事公共建設對一國總體經濟的影響。本文亦建構只有本國勞工的模型加以比較。研究結果發現在政府雇用外國勞工從事公共建設時，國民所得乘數短期為0.41，中長期為0.69；而雇用本國勞工時，短期為0.55，中長期為0.89，可知在雇用外國勞工時，國民所得乘數短期和中長期皆會較小。另外，在雇用外國勞工時，總產出乘數短期會稍大，但中長期亦會較小。其中，短期會稍大是由於假設外國勞工皆是根據經驗法則設置，而本國勞工為有遠見的消費者，因此雇用本國勞工時的消費為負面的，會使總產出減少。敏感性分析發現，在政府雇用外國勞工時，若政府資本的產出彈性從0.1 下降至0.05，中長期總產出乘數會低於1。

Foreign workers are increasingly important in public infrastructure construction. The macroeconomic literature, however, has not paid much attention to this phenomenon. Using a DSGE model, this paper studies the macroeconomic effects of public investment accounting for migrant workers. It finds that when the government uses foreign workers to build public infrastructure, the impact short-run (long-run) national income multiplier is 0.41 (0.69), compared to 0.55 (0.89) when using domestic workers. The use of foreign workers also lowers long-run output multiplier slightly. Because of the assumption that all foreign workers are rule-of-thumb and domestic workers are forward-looking with financial market access, the short-run output multipliers are slightly bigger with foreign workers than with domestic workers as consumption are crowded out by less. Sensitivity analysis finds that when the output elasticity with respect to public capital is lowered from 0.1 (the baseline case) to 0.05, the long-run cumulative output multiplier can be below 1 with foreign workers.

摘要. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i
Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii
第1 章緒論. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
第2 章文獻回顧. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
第3 章模型設立. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
3.1 家計單位. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
3.1.1 本國勞工. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
3.1.2 外國勞工. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
3.2 廠商. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
3.3 政府. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
3.4 總合條件與市場結清條件. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
第4 章參數設定與模型解. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
第5 章模擬分析. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
5.1 基準模型：政府雇用外國勞工從事公共建設. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
5.2 政府雇用本國勞工從事公共建設. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
5.3 不同政府資本的產出彈性之影響. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
第6 章結論. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
參考文獻. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
附錄. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
A.1 最適化條件. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
A.2 穩定條件. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
A.3 線性化方程式. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

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