近年來，人口老化使退休金改革成為許多高收入國家所面臨的重要議題。本文利用動態隨機一般均衡(DSGE) 模型建構一個封閉經濟體，以分析政府減少退休金給付對長期總體經濟的影響。研究發現，退休金減少對整體的產出效果主要取決於不同財政調整方式。以乘數效果來說，當政府將節省的退休金支出用於投資性政府支出時，退休金移轉支付減少1 元可導致長期產出增加0.5；而如果政府將節省的退休金支出用於消費性政府支出時，長期產出效果接近0。因此在長短期下，政府無論採取投資性政府支出或消費性政府支出作為財政調整方式，退休金改革皆會使退休人員的消費產生負面影響。

Pension reforms have become an important topic in high-income countries because of aging population. From the perspective of transfer reduction, this paper studies the macroeconomic effects of pension reforms, using a calibrated DSGE model. It finds that the output effects of pension reduction depend crucially on the fiscal adjustment instruments. When the saved pension expenditure is spent on productive public investment, a one-dollar reduction in pension transfers can lead to a long-run output to rise by 0.5. If instead the saved pension is spent on unproductive government consumption, the long-run output effect is near 0. Regardless fiscal adjustment methods, pension reform has a negative effect on the consumption of the retired both in the short and long runs.

口試委員會審定書. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i
摘要. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii
Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii
第1 章緒論. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
第2 章文獻回顧. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
2.1 理論方法. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
2.2 實證研究. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
2.3 台灣相關文獻. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
2.4 小結. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
第3 章模型設立. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
3.1 家計單位. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
3.1.1 工作者. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
3.1.2 高所得退休者. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
3.1.3 中低所得退休者. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
3.2 廠商. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
3.3 政府. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
第4 章參數設定與模型解. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
4.1 沿用既有文獻的參數. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
4.2 台灣的實際數據. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
4.3 自行設定及穩定狀態的參數值. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
第5 章模擬分析. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
5.1 基本模型分析. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
5.2 家計單位的福利變動. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
5.3 增加稅收支付公共建設的效果. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
第6 章結論. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
參考文獻. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
附錄. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
A.1 最適化條件. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
A.2 穩定條件. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
A.3 線性化方程式. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
A.4 計算所得稅率. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

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