本文將民眾對於現貨匯率波動的異質避險行為引入Eaton and Turnovsky (1982) 模型，模型中有一部份的民眾從事避險行為，一部份的民眾未從事避險行為。透過一個民眾具有異質避險行為的一般均衡模型，討論經濟體系在面對預料到的恆常性貨幣擴張政策時，即期匯率以及遠期匯率的動態調整過程，並分析當民眾參與避險的比例提高時，會如何影響預料到的恆常性貨幣擴張政策之效果。我們的研究結果發現：當民眾參與避險的比例提高時，不論是在政策宣告的時刻，或是在政策實際執行後，都能使即期匯率的波動幅度減少。這表示當民眾參與避險行為的比例越高，能夠降低預料到的恆常性貨幣擴張政策對即期匯率之影響，使即期匯率之波動較為穩定。

This Paper introduces the heterogeneous hedging behavior into Eaton and Turnovsky (1982) model. We allow part of people hedging, while part of people doesn’t. Through a general equilibrium model which people have heterogeneous hedging behavior, we examine the dynamics of spot exchange rates and forward exchange rates while the government announces an expansionary monetary policy. Besides, we also analysis the effects of expansionary monetary policy when the proportion of hedging people is higher. This paper finds out that while there are more people hedging, no matter at the point that government announces policy or after the government announces policy, the spot rate fluctuate less. It means when the proportion of hedging people is higher, the effects of an anticipated expansionary monetary policy is lower, and the fluctuation of spot exchange rates is more stable.

論文審定書……………………………………………….……..………i
謝辭……………………………………………………………….…….ii
摘要……………………………………………………………….……iii
Abstract……………………………………………………..……..…..iv
第壹章、緒論…………………………………………………….……1
第一節、研究動機與目的…………………………………..........…..1
第二節、文獻回顧……………………………………….........….…..2
第三節、本文架構…………………………………………..........…..5
第貳章、理論模型………………………………………………….…6
第一節、模型架構…………………………………………...........….6
第二節、動態分析…………………………………………..............13
第參章、政策的宣示效果……………………………………..……..21
第一節、動態體系…………………………………………..........…22
第二節、預料到的恆常性貨幣擴張政策…………………..........…25
第肆章、結論……………………………………………………...…40
參考文獻…………………………………………………………...…42
附錄A……………………………………………………………..…..44

一、中文部分
迮嘉衍（2006），「匯率目標區在遠期外匯市場下的安定效果：物價與匯率雙重預期的考量」，國立臺灣大學經濟學研究所碩士論文。
楊金龍（2018），「立法院財政委員會會議─中央銀行業務報告」，第35頁。
廖培賢與洪偉盛（2014），「體制崩潰、投機程度對現貨匯率與遠期匯率動態走勢的影響：以商品市場衝擊為例」，《社會科學論叢》，第11卷第2期，頁59-115。台北：國立政治大學社會科學院。
賴景昌（1994），《國際金融理論：進階篇》。台北：茂昌。
賴景昌（2006），「遠期外匯市場」，國立臺灣大學經濟學研究所上課講義。
賴景昌（2007），《國際金融理論：基礎篇》，第2版。台北：華泰。
二、西文部分
Dornbusch, R. (1976), “Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics,” Journal of Political Economy 84, pp.1161-1176.
Eaton, J. and Turnovsky, S. J. (1982), “Effects of Monetary Disturbance on Exchange Rates with Risk Adverse Speculation,” Journal of International Money and Finance 1, pp.21-37.
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Fleming, J. M. (1962), “Domestic Financial Policies under Fixed and Floating Exchange Rates,” IMF Staff Papers 29, pp.1-30.
Gray, M. and Turnovsky, S. J. (1979), “The Stability of Exchange Rate Dynamics under Perfect Myopic Foresight,” International Economic Review 20, pp.643-660.
Mundell, R. A. (1963), “Capital Mobility and Stabilization Policy under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rate System,” Canadian Journal of Economics and Political science 29, pp.475-485.
Tsiang, S. C. (1959), “The Theory of Forward Exchange and Effects of Government Intervention on the Forward Exchange Market,” IMF Staff Papers, pp.75-106.
Wilson, C. A. (1979), “Anticipated Shocks and Exchange Rate Dynamics,” Journal of Political Economy 87, pp.639-647.