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博碩士論文 etd-0603120-161804 詳細資訊
Title page for etd-0603120-161804
論文名稱
Title
新聞情緒與股價報酬實證分析
News Sentiment and Stock Returns: Some Empirical Analysis
系所名稱
Department
畢業學年期
Year, semester
語文別
Language
學位類別
Degree
頁數
Number of pages
70
研究生
Author
指導教授
Advisor
召集委員
Convenor
陳勤明
Chin-Ming Chen
口試委員
Advisory Committee
吳錦文, 陳昇鴻, 黃振聰
Chin-Wen Wu; Sheng-Hung Chen; Huang,Jen-Jsung
口試日期
Date of Exam
2020-06-18
繳交日期
Date of Submission
2020-07-03
關鍵字
Keywords
情緒分析、新聞情緒、財經新聞、文字探勘、股市預測
Sentiment analysis, News sentiment, Financial news, Text mining, Stock prediction
統計
Statistics
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中文摘要
文字探勘為近年來快速發展且逐漸被重視之技術,能夠將非結構化資料轉化為結構化資料以利使用者進行後續分析,相關財經研究領域之應用如探討公司財務報表、新聞專欄、社群媒體輿論等文字資訊。而本研究希望能藉由蒐集網路財經新聞與文字探勘資料整理的技術,將新聞中的情緒字詞量化成新聞情緒分數,並透過新聞情緒分群、時間序列迴歸模型、交易策略建構等研究方式,探討新聞情緒與股價報酬的關係。
實證結果顯示,當期新聞情緒能夠與當期股價報酬呈現相同走勢,而對應下期股價報酬,正面新聞情緒已無法帶來正向報酬,表示股價對正面情緒之新聞反應快速且存在投資人過度樂觀的現象,對於負面情緒的新聞則反應落後,仍然呈現負累積報酬的走勢。另外,新聞情緒風險因子在大規模公司投資組合中大部分較不顯著,其中在因子顯著的負面新聞情緒分類中,發現負面新聞對小規模公司的股價衝擊會比對大規模公司來的嚴重。藉由上述觀察,本研究將新聞情緒作為交易策略的賣出訊號,搭配簡單的進場條件建構交易策略,在不考慮交易成本的情況下,以新聞情緒做為賣出訊號的策略績效表現優於未以新聞情緒做為賣出訊號的策略績效表現,說明新聞情緒應用於交易策略的有效性。
Abstract
Text mining has developed rapidly in recent years. It can convert unstructured data into structured data for users to perform subsequent analysis. Applications in related financial research fields such as discussing company financial statements, news reports, and social media opinion and other text information. This study hopes to quantify the emotional words in the news into news sentiment scores through collecting online financial news, and by using research methods such as news sentiment clustering, time series regression models, and trading strategy construction to explore the relationship between news sentiment and stock returns.
The empirical results show that (1) the current news sentiment can show the same trend as the current stock returns, and positive news can no longer bring positive rewards in the next period, but the news of negative emotions still shows a trend of negative cumulative returns. (2) News sentiment risk factors are mostly insignificant in large-scale company portfolios. Among the negative news sentiment categories, it is found that the impact of negative news on stock prices of small-scale companies will be more severe than on large-scale companies. (3) Construct trading strategy with a simple entry conditions and use news sentiment as a sell signal for trading strategy, this trading strategy’s performance is better than the performance of the trading strategy without using news sentiment as a sell signal. It explains the value of news sentiment applied in trading strategies.
目次 Table of Contents
論文審定書 i
摘要 ii
Abstract iii
目 錄 iv
圖 次 vi
表 次 vii
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機 1
第二節 研究目的 2
第三節 研究架構 3
第二章 文獻回顧 4
第一節 影響投資人情緒的因素 4
第二節 投資人情緒與股票市場分析 5
第三節 新聞情緒 8
第三章 研究方法與模型建立 10
第一節 研究期間與資料來源 10
第二節 研究流程 10
第三節 文本資料處理 11
第四節 新聞情緒計算 13
第五節 新聞情緒分群與累積報酬率 14
第六節 多因子模型 15
第七節 交易策略介紹 17
第四章 實證結果 19
第一節 敘述統計 19
第二節 新聞情緒與股價報酬的關係 25
第三節 時間序列迴歸模型分析結果 32
第四節 交易策略績效表現 45
第五章 結論與建議 52
第一節 結論 52
第二節 研究建議 53
參考文獻 54
附錄 57
參考文獻 References
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