破產公司預警模型主要用於觀察各公司的內部經營狀況對於公司破產的關聯性，財務比率、公司治理和企業社會責任是最常見的研究變數，在本研究將使用財務比率對2009至2020年因財務問題下市之公司進行預測，選用的方法為機器學習方法之一的隨機森林進行預測，觀察其表現是否優異並找出最適合在公司破產前三年進行預測的變數有哪些。根據實證結果發現最適合的變數包括營運槓桿度、利息保障倍數、財務槓桿度、稅後淨利率、每股盈餘、現金流量比率和稅前息前淨利與總資產比，對於破產前一年的總預測準確度為83.78%，對於實際破產公司的預測準確度則高達95%，破產前兩年及前三年的準確度也有83.78%和78.38%。此外，本研究進一步探討台灣進行破產預測研究使用最多的羅吉斯迴歸與隨機森林做比較，結果發現在運用相同資料時，隨機森林的預測準確率較為出色，更適合運用在台灣的破產預測議題上，而在變數選擇方面財務比率的研究結果相較公司治理的研究結果更為準確。

The predictive model of bankrupt companies is mainly used to observe the internal operating conditions of each company and the correlation between the company's bankruptcy. Financial ratio, corporate governance and corporate social responsibility are the most common research variables. In this study, we will use financial ratio to predict the companies going to the market due to financial problems from 2009 to 2020. The selected method is random forest, one of the machine learning methods, observe whether the company's performance is excellent and find out what variables are most suitable for forecasting the company in the three years before bankruptcy. According to the empirical results, the most suitable variables include degree of operating leverage, times interest earned, degree of financial leverage, net profit margin, earnings per share, cash flow ratio and the ratio of net profit before interest and total assets. The total prediction accuracy of the year before bankruptcy is 83.78%, while the prediction accuracy of the actual bankrupt company is as high as 95%, The accuracy of the two and three years before bankruptcy was 83.78% and 78.38%. In addition, this study further explores the comparison between the most frequently used logistic regression and random forests in Taiwan's bankruptcy prediction research. The results show that the prediction accuracy of random forests is better when using the same data, and it is more suitable for Taiwan's bankruptcy prediction, in terms of variable selection, the results of financial ratio are more accurate than those of corporate governance.

論文審定書 i
謝辭 ii
摘要 iii
Abstract iv
圖次 vi
表次 vii
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景 1
第二節 研究目的與動機 3
第三節 研究架構 4
第二章 文獻探討 5
第一節 破產公司之定義 5
第二節 預測破產之模式探討 6
第三節 建立預警模型之方法 8
第三章 研究方法 11
第四章 破產預測之實證結果與分析 22
第一節 多變數篩選 22
第二節 預測準確度 26
第五章 相關方法之結果與比較 30
第一節 羅吉斯迴歸 30
第二節 訓練集和測試集比例調整之預測結果 31
第三節 公司治理因素 32
第六章 結論與建議 34
第一節 結論 34
第二節 建議 35
附錄 36
參考文獻 37

中文文獻
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