全球暖化對金融市場的影響日益顯著，分析師作為金融市場中不可或缺的一員，其工作和情緒狀態可能受到極端氣溫事件的影響。本研究旨在探討極端氣溫對分析師情緒和工作效率的影響，以評估全球暖化對其的潛在影響。研究結果顯示，在異常高溫的情況下，分析師的情緒變得更不樂觀。極端氣溫的程度也顯著影響分析師的情緒狀態，使他們更傾向於表現出保守和悲觀的情緒，也顯著降低分析師的工作效率，導致其預測頻率下降。這些發現表明，極端氣溫事件不僅影響金融市場的波動，也對分析師的情緒和決策過程產生了深遠的影響。

The impact of global warming on financial markets is becoming increasingly significant. As indispensable participants in financial markets, analysts' work and emotional states may be affected by extreme temperature events. This study aims to explore the impact of extreme temperatures on analysts' emotions and work efficiency, evaluating the potential effects of global warming on them. The results indicate that analysts' emotions become more pessimistic under abnormally high temperatures. The extent of extreme temperatures also significantly affects analysts' emotional states, making them more inclined to exhibit conservative and pessimistic emotions, and significantly reduces their work efficiency, leading to a decrease in forecasting frequency. These findings suggest that extreme temperature events not only affect financial market volatility but also have profound impacts on analysts' emotions and decision-making processes.

目錄
論文審定書 i
摘要 ii
Abstract iii
壹、緒論 1
貳、文獻回顧與研究假說 5
一、文獻回顧 5
二、研究假說 7
參、資料描述與研究方法 10
一、資料來源 10
二、模型設計 12
三、變數解釋 15
（一）被解釋變數 15
（二）解釋變數 17
（三）控制變數 17
肆、研究結果 19
一、樣本說明 19
二、敘述性統計 21
三、相關係數 23
四、異常溫度值對分析師情緒之影響 24
五、異常溫度值對分析師工作效率之影響 25
六、異常溫度值對分析師情緒影響之額外測試 26
伍、結論 27
參考文獻 29
附錄 33

Addoum, J. M., Ng, D. T., & Ortiz-Bobea, A. (2023). Temperature shocks and industry earnings news. Journal of Financial Economics, 150(1), 1-45.
Bart, J. L., & Bourque, D. A. (1995). Acknowledging the weather-health link. CMAJ: Canadian Medical Association Journal, 153(7), 941.
Bernhardt, D., & Campello, M. (2007). The dynamics of earnings forecast management. Review of Finance, 11(2), 287-324.
Bratten, B., & Larocque, S. (2023). How Do Individual Analyst Characteristics Affect Analyst Performance?. Journal of Financial Reporting, 1-21.
Cai, X., Lu, Y., & Wang, J. (2018). The impact of temperature on manufacturing worker productivity: evidence from personnel data. Journal of Comparative Economics, 46(4), 889-905.
Chan, J., Lin, S., Yu, Y., & Zhao, W. (2018). Analysts’ stock ownership and stock recommendations. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 66(2-3), 476-498.
Choi, D., Gao, Z., & Jiang, W. (2020). Attention to global warming. The Review of Financial Studies, 33(3), 1112-1145.
Clark, L. A., & Watson, D. (1988). Mood and the mundane: relations between daily life events and self-reported mood. Journal of personality and social psychology, 54(2), 296.
Coleman, D. F., & Schaefer, N. V. (1990). Weather and absenteeism. Canadian Journal of Administrative Sciences/Revue Canadienne des Sciences de l'Administration, 7(4), 35-42.
Coumou, D., & Rahmstorf, S. (2012). A decade of weather extremes. Nature climate change, 2(7), 491-496.
Dehaan, E., Madsen, J., & Piotroski, J. D. (2017). Do weather‐induced moods affect the processing of earnings news?. Journal of Accounting Research, 55(3), 509-550.
Dell, M., Jones, B. F., & Olken, B. A. (2009). Temperature and income: reconciling new cross-sectional and panel estimates. American Economic Review, 99(2), 198-204.
Denissen, J. J., Butalid, L., Penke, L., & Van Aken, M. A. (2008). The effects of weather on daily mood: a multilevel approach. Emotion, 8(5), 662.
Dong, R., Fisman, R., Wang, Y., & Xu, N. (2021). Air pollution, affect, and forecasting bias: Evidence from Chinese financial analysts. Journal of Financial Economics, 139(3), 971-984.
El Ghoul, S., Guedhami, O., Wei, Z., & Zhu, Y. (2023). Does public corruption affect analyst forecast quality?. Journal of Banking & Finance, 154, 106860.
Francis, J. R., Neuman, S. S., & Newton, N. J. (2019). Does tax planning affect analysts’ forecast accuracy?. Contemporary Accounting Research, 36(4), 2663-2694.
Gu, Z., & Wu, J. S. (2003). Earnings skewness and analyst forecast bias. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 35(1), 5-29.
Hansen, J., Sato, M., & Ruedy, R. (2012). Perception of climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109(37), E2415-E2423.
Howarth, E., & Hoffman, M. S. (1984). A multidimensional approach to the relationship between mood and weather. British journal of psychology, 75(1), 15-23.
Hu, J., Long, W., Luo, L., & Peng, Y. (2021). Share pledging and optimism in analyst earnings forecasts: Evidence from China. Journal of Banking & Finance, 132, 106245.
Isen, A. M. (2001). An influence of positive affect on decision making in complex situations: Theoretical issues with practical implications. Journal of consumer psychology, 11(2), 75-85.
Jackson, A. R. (2005). Trade generation, reputation, and sell‐side analysts. The journal of finance, 60(2), 673-717.
Jiang, H., Habib, A., & Gong, R. (2015). Business cycle and management earnings forecasts. Abacus, 51(2), 279-310.
Jones, B. F., & Olken, B. A. (2010). Climate shocks and exports. American Economic Review, 100(2), 454-459.
Kanagaretnam, K., Lobo, G. J., & Mathieu, R. (2012). CEO stock options and analysts’ forecast accuracy and bias. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 38, 299-322.
Kaplan, Z., Martin, X., & Xie, Y. (2021). Truncating optimism. Journal of Accounting Research, 59(5), 1827-1884.
Kong, D., Lin, Z., Wang, Y., & Xiang, J. (2021). Natural disasters and analysts’ earnings forecasts. Journal of Corporate Finance, 66, 101860.
Kööts, L., Realo, A., & Allik, J. (2011). The influence of the weather on affective experience. Journal of individual differences.
Lee, S. O., Mark, N. C., Nauerz, J., Rawls, J., & Wei, Z. (2022). Global temperature shocks and real exchange rates. Journal of Climate Finance, 1, 100004.
Li, N., Xu, N., Dong, R., Chan, K. C., & Lin, X. (2021). Does an anti-corruption campaign increase analyst earnings forecast optimism?. Journal of Corporate Finance, 68, 101931.
Lin, R. T., & Chan, C. C. (2009). Effects of heat on workers’ health and productivity in Taiwan. Global Health Action, 2(1), 2024.
Markham, S. E., & Markham, I. S. (2005). Biometeorological effects on worker absenteeism. International journal of biometeorology, 49, 317-324.
Mikhail, M. B., Walther, B. R., & Willis, R. H. (2009). Does investor sentiment affect sell-side analysts’ forecast accuracy. Working paper, Northwestern University.
Noelke, C., McGovern, M., Corsi, D. J., Jimenez, M. P., Stern, A., Wing, I. S., & Berkman, L. (2016). Increasing ambient temperature reduces emotional well-being. Environmental research, 151, 124-129.
Rahmstorf, S., & Coumou, D. (2011). Increase of extreme events in a warming world. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 108(44), 17905-17909.
Rosenzweig, C., Karoly, D., Vicarelli, M., Neofotis, P., Wu, Q., Casassa, G., ... & Imeson, A. (2008). Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change. Nature, 453(7193), 353-357.
Song, X., & Fang, T. (2023). Temperature shocks and bank systemic risk: Evidence from China. Finance Research Letters, 51, 103447.
Sudarshan, A., & Tewari, M. (2014). The economic impacts of temperature on industrial productivity: Evidence from indian manufacturing (No. 278). Working paper.
Veenman, D., & Verwijmeren, P. (2018). Do investors fully unravel persistent pessimism in analysts' earnings forecasts?. The Accounting Review, 93(3), 349-377.
Wang, Y., & Liu, Z. (2024). Under the dome: Air pollution and analyst forecast optimism. Research in International Business and Finance, 70, 102345.
Watson, D., Wiese, D., Vaidya, J., & Tellegen, A. (1999). The two general activation systems of affect: Structural findings, evolutionary considerations, and psychobiological evidence. Journal of personality and social psychology, 76(5), 820.
Xu, N., Jiang, X., Chan, K. C., & Yi, Z. (2013). Analyst coverage, optimism, and stock price crash risk: Evidence from China. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 25, 217-239.
Zivin, J. G., & Neidell, M. (2012). The impact of pollution on worker productivity. American Economic Review, 102(7), 3652-3673.