本論文將Poterba(1984)所建構的房屋市場模型由部分均衡分析擴展為一般均衡分析，建立引進房屋市場的封閉經濟總體模型，並據此探討，政策實施不同型態的預料到及未預料到的緊縮性貨幣政策 (於利率指標下調升利率水準及於貨幣供給指標下縮減貨幣供給數量)對於房屋存量及房屋價格有何不同的影響。根據本文的分析，可得到下列結論:
一、在利率政策指標下，央行調升利率水準會造成長期的房屋存量及房屋價格均下降。
二、在貨幣供給政策指標下，央行調降貨幣供給數量造成長期的房屋存量及房屋價格均下降。
三、政府在政策實施前如果宣告政策，將會改變民眾的預期，使房屋價格在政策宣告後立即跳動，並在政策實施前房屋存量及房屋價格已經變動反應。

This thesis extends Poterba's (1984) housing market model from a partial equilibrium analysis to a general equilibrium counterpart. The purpose of this thesis is to analyze how the anticipated and unanticipated monetary policies under alternative monetary targeting rules govern the transitional dynamics of the housing stock and housing prices.
The following conclusions emerge from our analysis. First, under the regime of interest rate targeting, when the monetary authority raises its interest rate target, the long-run housing stock and housing price will decrease in response. Second, under the regime of money supply targeting, when the monetary authority reduces its money supply target, the long-run housing stock and housing price tend to decline in response. Third, a pre-announcement of monetary policy will change the public’s expectations on the housing price, and hence affect the public’s asset holding behavior even though the monetary policy is not yet implemented. As a result, the housing price will jump immediately at the instant of the announcement of the policy, and the housing stock and the housing price will change over time during the period following the announcement, but prior to the policy implementation.

論文審定書 i
謝辭 ii
摘要 iii
Abstract iv
目錄 v
圖目錄 vi
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機 1
第二節 文獻回顧 2
第三節 本文架構 3
第二章 理論模型 4
模型架構 4
第三章 利率政策指標 6
第一節 利率政策指標之動態分析 6
第二節 未預料到的利率調升 10
第三節 預料到的利率調升 13
第四章 貨幣供給政策指標 20
第一節 貨幣供給政策指標之動態分析 20
第二節 未預料到的貨幣緊縮 26
第三節 預料到的貨幣緊縮 30
第五章 結論 37
附錄A 38
參考文獻 39

一、 中文部分
中央銀行(2003)，「中華民國中央銀行之制度與功能」，台北:中央銀行。
孫鈺峰、胡士文(2006)，「農業生物科技補貼政策與農業內生成長:環保內生成長的應用」，《農業經濟半年刊》，第八十期，頁23-58。
陳旭昇、吳聰敏(2010)，「台灣貨幣政策法則之檢視」，經濟論文，第38卷第1期，頁33-59。
賴景昌(1994)，《國際金融理論-進階篇》，台北:茂昌。
賴景昌(2011)，《總體經濟學》，第三版，第五章第九節。台北:雙葉。
賴景昌(2020)，「理性預期」、「宣示效果」，研究所上課講義。
二、 西文部分
DiPasquale, D. and Wheaton, W. C. (1994), “Housing Market Dynamics and the Future of Housing Prices.” Journal of Urban Economics, 35,1-27.
Jud, G. D. and Winkler, D. T. (2002), “The Dynamics of Metropolitan Housing Prices.” Journal of Real Estate Research, 23,29-46.
Lastrapes, W. D. (2002), “The Real Price of Housing and Money Supply Shocks: Time Series Evidence and Theoretical Simulations.” Journal of Housing Economics, 11,40-74.
Liu, J. and Wang, S. (2010), “Empirical Study on the Relationship between Money Supply and the Property Market.” Paper presented at the International Conference on Management and Service Science.
Mishkin, F. S. (2007), “Housing and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism.” NBER Working Paper. No.13518.
Poterba, J. M. (1984), “Tax Subsidies to Owner-Occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 99,729-752.
Poole, W. (1970), “Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 84,197-216.
Robert, H. E. and Tsang, D. (2007), “Dynamic Residential Housing Cycles Analysis.” The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 35,295-313.
Su, C.W., Wang, X.Q., Tao, R. and Chang, H.L. (2018), “Does Money Supply Drive Housing Prices in China?” International Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, 60,85-94.
Zhou, L., Cheng, X. and Chen, S. (2014), “Analysis of the Effect of Money Supply on Real Estate Price.” Journal of Applied Science and Engineering Innovation ,1, 412-418.
三、 網站部分
中央銀行全球資訊網。五大銀行平均存款利率與五大銀行平均基準利率。
檢自https://www.cbc.gov.tw/tw/cp-371-1040-5C7A0-1.html（最後瀏覽
日期:2021/6/25）
Numbeo. Property Prices Index by Country 2020.
檢自https://www.numbeo.com/property-
investment/rankings_by_country.jsp?title=2020&displayColumn=0（最
後瀏覽日期:2021/6/25）