博碩士論文 etd-0622120-093005 詳細資訊


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姓名 張博翔(Bo-Shiang Zhang) 電子郵件信箱 E-mail 資料不公開
畢業系所 企業管理學系研究所(Department of Business Management)
畢業學位 碩士(Master) 畢業時期 108學年第2學期
論文名稱(中) 地下管線資訊公佈後對周遭房價影響 : 以高雄市為例
論文名稱(英) The Impact of Pipeline Position Information Disclosure on Surrounding Housing Price – A Case Study of Kaohsiung City
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    摘要(中) 市場總訴說著房屋買賣不外乎地點、地點還是地點,除了房屋格局外,房屋周遭更是影響了房屋的價值,而周遭環境也有好的與壞的事物影響著房屋,好的不論學區、公園、交通、生活採購,壞的則有垃圾場、焚化爐、公墓等,然而對於市場而言,這些顯而易見的鄰避設施估計容易,但那些難以估計的事物如空汙、土壤液化等則需仰賴資訊的揭露才能讓市場反映真實價格,本研究便針對不動產市場中,聚焦於不利估計的地下管線位置,來探討經政府公布後對周遭有管線的房屋有何影響。
    過去的資訊揭露文獻皆以差異中之差異法以區分出在特定研究目標下,特定時點前後之影響,其中諸如土石流潛勢區、土壤液化潛勢區、噪音汙染地圖、鉛含量地圖等多使勇此方法來觀察效果。本研究除了沿用了過去文獻方法,使用差異中之差異法看出管線公布後對周遭房價之效果外,額外使用分量迴歸區分出不通分量的效果;此外,將額外探討不同距離下何種距離較為適合,以及管線經挑選後是否改變欲探討的效果。
    筆者使用2012年至2017年高雄市所有不動產交易之資料,並運用差異中之差異法與分量迴歸模型進行分析。研究結果發現,一般最小平方法下個距離基準下圖資公布後且周遭有管線之係數皆呈現不顯著的狀況,而分量迴歸中以100公尺有管線為基準時,0.1分量出現顯著負向影響,下滑3.1%,其他距離區間與分量的關鍵變數,及住宅一定距離內是否有管線與交易是否於圖資公布後交互作用效果上,都出現正向影響,且多為顯著,並隨分量上升而效果越明顯。
    對此本研究推測中高房價之交易受豪宅與商辦等因素因而不在乎管線因而呈現正相關,對此,本研究發現豪宅因素由於結果為不顯著,因此僅能證明豪宅對此研究目標較不在乎,無法證明因此出現正向效果,而商辦等非住宅則出現明顯負向影響,非住宅降幅達44.3%,除了變向證明非住宅並非正效果之因素之一外,其影響也比一般住宅更明顯。
    摘要(英) This study uses data from all real estate transactions in Kaohsiung city from 2012 to 2017, and uses differences in differences method(DID) to explore the effect of underground petrochemical pipelines on the surrounding housing prices after the pipelines information announcement. Moreover, we additionally uses quantile regression to distinguish the marginal effect in 10th,25th,50th,75th,90th quantile. In addition, we will discuss which distance is more suitable when computing distance between pipelines and transactions, and whether filtered pipelines might change the effect will also be discussed.
    Our research results found that general least square method and the 10th quantile in quantile regression have a negative effect on the effect of the transaction is within 100 meters and transaction date is after the pipeline information released, of which only 10th quantile in quantile regression is significant. Moreover, other distance and quantile are mostly positively influence effect.
    For this reason, this study speculates that mansion and non-residential housing are two factors which result in positively influence effect in higher quantile. Therefore, this study aims these two possible reasons, one is non-residential housing such as offices and store which people didn’t live there, the other is luxury house which might not care about pipeline risk. According to empirical results, the factors of luxury housing have not been significantly affected, while non-residential housing such as stores and offices still have strong and significant negative influence effect. Besides, regardless of pipeline filtering, empirical results show that there is not much difference in the effect of house prices, and there is no obvious better distance benchmark.
    關鍵字(中)
  • 不動產產業
  • 分量迴歸
  • 差異中之差異法
  • 地下石化管線
  • 資訊揭露
  • 關鍵字(英)
  • differences in differences
  • real estate industry
  • information disclosure
  • underground petrochemical pipelines
  • quantile regression
  • 論文目次 學位論文審定書 ...................................................... i
    誌 謝 ............................................................ ii
    摘 要 ........................................................... iii
    Abstract ...................................................... iv
    圖次 ............................................................... vi
    表次 .............................................................. vii
    1 緒論 ............................................................. 1
    1.1 研究背景與動機 .............................................. 2
    1.2 研究問題與流程 .............................................. 5
    2 文獻回顧 ......................................................... 6
    2.1 不動產估價方法之演變 ........................................ 6
    2.2 房屋內部特徵之效果 .......................................... 7
    2.3 房屋外部特徵之效果 .......................................... 8
    2.4 資訊揭露對不動產市場之效果 .................................. 9
    2.5 地下管線相關研究 ........................................... 12
    3 研究方法 ........................................................ 13
    3.1 資料來源 ................................................... 13
    3.2 資料處理 ................................................... 19
    3.3 分析工具 ................................................... 24
    4 研究結果 ........................................................ 31
    4.1 敘述統計與樣本概況 ......................................... 31
    4.2 基本分析結果 ............................................... 35
    4.3 進階分析結果 ............................................... 41
    5 結論與建議 ...................................................... 48
    5.1 研究結論 ................................................... 48
    5.2 研究建議與未來方向 ......................................... 49
    參考文獻 ........................................................... 51
    1. 中文文獻 ..................................................... 51
    2. 英文文獻 ..................................................... 51
    3. 相關網站 ..................................................... 55
    附錄 ............................................................... 56
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    3. 相關網站
    內政部時價登錄服務網. Website:
    https://lvr.land.moi.gov.tw/homePage.action
    高雄市工業管線查詢系統. Website:
    https://ops.kcg.gov.tw/khpipe/default_c.aspx
    台灣工業用地供給與服務資訊網. Website:
    https://idbpark.moeaidb.gov.tw/
    2014年高雄氣爆事故. Website:
    https://idbpark.moeaidb.gov.tw/Environ?AntiToken=xuEwXkLJKLXfqTWWL%2BRcZg7M%2BZZ%2BFJeT7q9mufGuQ64%3D&CityID=E&p=2
    環境資訊中心. Website:
    https://e-info.org.tw/node/28354
    爆炸極限. Website:
    https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%88%86%E7%82%B8%E6%A5%B5%E9%99%90#cite_note-21
    Great-Circle Distance. Website:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great-circle_distance
    口試委員
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  • 黃浩霆 - 委員
  • 佘健源 - 指導教授
  • 口試日期 2020-07-10 繳交日期 2020-07-22

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