臺灣因為位處西太平洋颱風易生成區域，颱風的風場變化會對沿海區域產生暴潮影響，沿海區域水位增長，加上上游流量增加，使大量的水堆積於河口地區。颱風所帶來的強降雨落在河川集水區及水庫，導致水庫水位上漲後為防洪調度進行洩洪，使河川下游處流量以及水位上升。淡水河位於臺灣西北部，是臺灣少數全年有穩定流量的河道。本研究透過數值模擬的方式探討淡水河流域在颱風期間潮汐及河道流量之間的關係。

本研究使用SCHISM水動力模式來做淡水河感潮河段以及河口區域水動力模擬，並藉由耦合風場模組來模擬颱風期間風場所帶來的影響。根據結果顯示，潮汐訊號越往上游處振幅越小，且基隆河潮汐訊號僅到汐止為止，這與先前研究結果一致。根據颱風案例期間水利署三個流量測站所測得流量資料作為上游入流邊界，模擬下游流量及水位與實測值吻合，最後加入颱風風場資料做風暴潮耦合計算。結果顯示在上游流量甚大的情況下，流向在河口不會改變，表示潮汐訊號止於河口無法進入河道內部，並且在河口地區呈現水位堆高現象，河道與河口潮汐訊號相比延遲更加明顯。由尼伯特颱風案例可知流量對河道水位及河口潮汐影響遠大於風場對水體影響，在尼伯特颱風登陸台灣期間最大近58 m/s風速，即使在如此大風速影響下河口潮汐依然不受影響；但在卡努颱風案例中受到東北季風影響之降雨，潮汐流量明顯受到河川流量增加影響，流入河道內水量減少並縮短流入時間。在上游部分，河道流量主要與集水區有關，由於新店溪與大漢溪上游存在水庫，在強降雨期間河道流量取決於水庫洩洪量，基隆河則因沒有水庫攔截，流量增加量與降雨量成正比，且因河道寬度較其他兩支流窄，水位上升幅度最高。

The variations of water levels in tidal rivers during typhoon period could cause by the variation of air pressure and wind fields of the typhoons, and the upstream floods. The variations of water levels called “typhoon surge”. This study aims to study the interactions between tides and flood flows during typhoons in the Tamsui River. Tamsui River situated in the northwestern Taiwan and which has stable flows. Taiwan is often threatened with the high frequency of typhoon events. During the typhoons, the large amount of water from upstream and river catchment areas caused by heavy rainfalls and water levels raises as consequence.
The research used SCHISM to simulate hydrodynamics of the Tamsui River and the effects of typhoons coupled with wind field model. According to the results, the tidal effects gradually decrease from downstream to upstream and finally end up at Xizhi. The modeled flows and water levels matched with observation data as well. Results indicate while the large water flows happened, the flow directions were off coastal thought tides still kept pushing and accumulating at estuary, which means flood flow dominated the flow direction. From all typhoon cases, Typhoon surge along Tamsui River is controlled by the amount of upstream flows rather than the wind speed and direction. Typhoon Khanun, for instance, brought the large amount of water to Tamsui River. Caused the water levels accumulated at the river mouth was significant. While another case, Typhoon Nipartak was a severe typhoon; however, the water accumulations were weaker than Typhoon Kanu because Typhoon Nipartak did not bring much amount of water flows. In conclusion, the water levels in Tamsui River during typhoon is dominated by the upstream water flow due to the high precipitation brought by typhoons.

論文審定書 i
摘要 ii
ABSTRACT iii
目錄 iv
圖目錄 vii
表目錄 x
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究動機 1
1.2 研究背景與目的 1
1.3 研究架構 2
第二章 文獻回顧 3
2.1 感潮河段特性 3
2.2 颱風對河川影響 5
2.3 淡水河相關文獻 8
第三章 研究方法 10
3.1 研究資料蒐集比對 10
3.1.1 水位及流量資料蒐集 10
3.1.2 潮汐資料蒐集分析 10
3.1.3 風場分析比對 12
3.2 模式介紹:水動力模式-SCHISM 14
3.2.1 模式簡介 14
3.2.2 控制方程式 15
3.2.3 模式特性 17
第四章 模式建置與驗證 21
4.1 區域網格建置 21
4.2 參數化風場建置 23
4.3 淡水河水動力建置 25
4.3.1. 觀測點位置及模式條件設定 25
4.3.2. 純潮汐 26
4.3.3. 基流量 29
4.3.4. 水位驗證 32
第五章 颱風案例探討 36
5.1 背景設定 36
5.2 颱風案例 37
5.2.1 2015年蘇迪勒颱風 37
5.2.2 2016年尼伯特颱風 42
5.2.3 2016年莫蘭蒂颱風 45
5.2.4 2016年梅姬颱風 51
5.2.5 2017年卡努颱風 56
5.3 小結 60
第六章 結論與建議 61
6.1 結論 61
6.2 建議 63
參考文獻 64
附錄 67
附錄一 參數化風場路徑及風速流矢圖 67
附錄二 颱風期間研究區域水位變化圖 73

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