根據Kim and Nelson (1999) 和McConnell and Perez-Quiros (2000)，美國經濟發生大緩和的時間點為1984年第一季；Summers (2005) 研究七大工業國組織及澳洲發生大緩和現象的時間點與背後原因。彙整以下三點可能的解釋，分別是存貨管理的改善、較佳的貨幣政策、好運說。在過去的五十年間，澳洲實質經濟成長率的波動度有大幅度的下跌。在1968~1982年間，澳洲的實質GDP標準差為1.416% ; 在1983~1996年間，澳洲的實質GDP標準差為0.917%。本研究針對此一現象，嘗試分析與了解探索澳洲大緩和可能發生的原因。實證研究顯示，最主要原因是來自貨幣政策的影響、其次則為油價的外在衝擊。

According to Kim and Nelson (1999) and McConnell and Perez-Quiros (2000), the timing of the Great Moderation occurred in U.S. at 1984Q1. Summers (2005) found out several reasons and different timings of the Great Moderation in the G-7 countries and Australia. During the past fifty years, there was a significantly sharp decline in the volatility of the real growth rate in Australia. Between 1968 and 1982, the standard deviation of the real growth rate was 1.416%；however, between 1983 and 1996, the standard deviation of the real growth rate drastically reduced to 0.917%. Based on this obvious situation described above, we successively build up a Markov-Switching Model and Time-Varying Structural Autoregressive Model to investigate the structural break and the sources of the Great Moderation in Australia. The findings turn out that improved monetary policy and the decreased oil shock can account for the explanation of the moderation with the break date of 1984Q1.

論文審定書........................................................................ i
誌謝.................................................................................. ii
中文摘要.......................................................................... iii
英文摘要.......................................................................... iv
圖次.................................................................................. v
表次................................................................................. vi
第一章 緒論...................................................................... 1
第一節 研究動機與目的.................................................... 1
第二節 研究架構與流程.................................................... 5
第二章 文獻回顧............................................................... 6
第三章 研究方法............................................................. 11
第一節 馬可夫轉換模型.................................................. 11
第二節 含隨機波動項的時變向量自我迴歸模型.............. 14
第四章 實證結果............................................................. 18
第一節 資料來源及處理.................................................. 18
第二節 變數敘述統計及走勢圖....................................... 19
第三節 數列定態分析–單根檢定..................................... 24
第四節 馬可夫轉換模型.................................................. 32
第五節 衝擊反應函數－VAR與TV-VAR之比較............... 33
第六節 變異數分解－VAR與TV-VAR之比較................... 36
第五章 結論與建議.......................................................... 39
參考文獻......................................................................... 41
附錄一：機率與時間對照表............................................ 45
附錄二：VAR下檢定殘差是否有自我相關...................... 49

中文部分
方文碩、曾仁清與鄭淑青 (2011)。大緩和：五個亞洲新興國家證據。經濟與管理論叢，7(1)，227-256。
陳旭昇 (2009)。時間序列分析－總體經濟與財務金融之應用(修訂版)。台北市：臺灣東華書局。
楊奕農 (2009)：時間序列分析－經濟與財務上之應用(二版)。台北市：雙葉書廊。
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