本文考慮一存在不確定風險且非利他行為設定的跨期疊代移轉模型，在人口出生率為內生下，探討家戶的跨期投資決策行為。在這個分析架構之下，父母會視子女的＂投資報酬＂來決定對子女的教育投資量，但是同時必須考慮代間移轉行為的風險問題。並且探討存在不確定風險下，社會安全福利政策對家戶決策的影響。另外，議價能力對家庭的影響也是本文探討的重點之一。本文也將針對存在不確定風險下的家戶最適教育投資行為進行探討。証明存在不確定風險下的家庭最適教育支出並非社會最適水準，並且提出法令規範和補貼政策兩個改善教育投資無效率的方法及效果。發現，補貼政策相較於法令規範而言，能較有效的提高人生出生率。

This paper uses an overlapping generation model with uncertainty and endogenous fertility to study households’ educational and investment choices. Individuals are assumed to be selfish and the intra-family deals are ruled by a self-enforcing ‘family constitution’. Within this framework, parents finance their children’s education inasmuch as they receive a return (a share of the increased earnings accruing to the children) and degree of risk aversion. And we show that the effect of social security on fertility and saving is analyzed both in the absence and in the presence of a perfect capital market. The impact on family's decision of the ability of the bargaining power is one of the focal points that this text is discussed, too. We also show that under this arrangement, individuals purchase less education than socially optimal. This yields a rationale for public action, either via public provision or via subsidization. We analyses both policies and find that they have different implications for households’ fertility decisions. In particular, subsidization should be preferred if we wish to keep the rate of population growth as high as possible.

目錄
第一章 導論1
第一節 研究背景與目的1
第二節 研究方法與架構3
第二章 文獻回顧4
第三章 理論模型8
第一節 模型假設8
第二節 模型13
第三節 經濟意涵16
第四節 比較靜態分析18
4.1 成年期所得變動對家庭決策的影響18
4.2 社會安全系統變動對家戶決策的影響21
4.2-1社會安全定額捐21
4.2-2社會安全赤字22
4.3 議價能力對家庭決策之影響23
第四章 存在不確定性下之最適教25
第一節 家戶最適教育投資與社會最適教育投資25
第二節 政府政策27
2.1法令規範28
2.2補貼政策30
第五章 結論與未來研究方向33
第一節 結論33
第二節 未來研究方向35
附錄 一36
附錄 二38
參考文獻39
中文參考文獻39
英文參考文獻39

參考文獻
中文參考文獻：
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2. 白懿淳（1996）， “代間移轉行為之探討”，碩士論文，國立中央大學產業經濟研究所。
3. 吳明儒（1998）， “公私年金政策與制度發展之互動因素分析--臺灣與英國之比較研究”，碩士論文，國立中正大學社會福利研究所。
4. 張維迎著，劉楚俊編校（2000），《賽局理論與訊息經濟學》，茂昌圖書有限公司。
5. 楊瑤隆（1997）， “兩代移轉、消費及儲蓄行為--賽局理論的應用”，碩士論文，淡江大學產業經濟研究所。
6. 詹火生和林慧芬（2002），“社會結構變遷下的養老風險”，國家政策論壇，社會（析）091-010號。台北：國家政策研究基金會
英文參考文獻：
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19. Tuomala, M﹒（1990）, “Optimal income tax and redistribution_Clarendon Press,” Oxford﹒