本文針對2009年至2019年間的臺灣20個城市(不含金、馬地區)的季追蹤資料探討各種影響房價所得比的因素，過往文獻在探討房價議題的估計方法皆不同，本文利用Panel Data的優點，較時間序列及橫段面分析能提供研究者較多的數據，增加自由度並減少解釋變數間的共線性，進而改善計量經濟估計的有效性；此外，對於傳統文獻採用多個N的資料結構，仍存在橫段面相依的問題，若是忽略橫段面相依的可能性，在模型估計中將存在係數異質性的問題，估計值將存在明顯偏誤，因此本文採用Pesaran(2006)所提出的方法，考慮共同相關效果(CCE)估計解決上述問題。
本研究將未觀察到因子加入討論，研究結果發現加入未觀察因子的影響後，房價所得比與貸款負擔率、新增購置住宅貸款平均利率、住宅存量間，的確存在未觀察因子交互作用；並且因為模型中存在未觀察因子，不同的總經變數對各縣市房價所得比有不同程度的影響。其對於各縣市所造成的總體經濟因素對於房價所得比的衝擊程度不同，而不能僅用全體經濟面去檢討單一政策，而忽略掉個體間存在差異性的事實，以避免政策誤判。

This paper explores various factors affecting the house price-to-income ratio of 20 cities in Taiwan (excluding Jinma region) from the first quarter of 2009 to the fourth quarter of 2019, the conventional literature has different ways of estimating housing price. This paper can provide researchers with more data, because this paper chose Panel Data over time series and cross-sectional analysis, and increase degrees of freedom and reduce collinearity between explanatory variables, thus improving the effectiveness of econometric estimation. In addition, there is still the problem of cross-sectional interdependence for the use of multiple N data structures in traditional literature. The conventional estimation techniques ignore cross section dependence and parameter heterogeneous, so this paper uses the method proposed by Pesaran(2006) to consider the common correlation effect (CCE) estimation to solve the above problem.
In this study, there is indeed an unobserved factor interaction between the housing price income ratio, the loan burden rate, the average interest rate of new residential loans, and the housing quantity ; and because there are unobserved factors in the model, different total economic variables have different degrees of impact on the housing price income ratio of each county. The overall economic factors caused by the counties and cities have different impacts on the housing price income ratio. It is not possible to review a single policy with the entire economy and ignore the fact that there are differences between individuals to avoid policy misjudgments.

論文審定書....................................................................................................ⅰ
摘 要.............................................................................................................ii
ABSTRACT................................................................................................iii
目 錄............................................................................................................iv
圖 次............................................................................................................vi
表 次...........................................................................................................vii
第一章 緒論.................................................................................................. 1
1.1 研究背景....................................................................................... 1
1.2 研究動機與目的........................................................................... 7
1.3 論文架構....................................................................................... 9
第二章 文獻探討 ....................................................................................... 10
第三章 經濟模型設定............................................................................... 15
3.1 變數定義..................................................................................... 16
3.2 研究假設..................................................................................... 17
第四章 計量模型設定 ............................................................................... 18
4.1 研究方法..................................................................................... 19
4.1.1 檢驗方法.......................................................................... 19
4.1.2 模型估計.......................................................................... 21
第五章 實證結果分析 ............................................................................... 24
5.1 資料來源及處理......................................................................... 24
5.1.1 模型檢定.......................................................................... 25
5.1.2 模型估計.......................................................................... 26
第六章 結論................................................................................................ 30
參考文獻..................................................................................................... 32
參考資料來源................................................................................... 32
中文部分........................................................................................... 32
英文部分........................................................................................... 34

參考數據來源
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政治大學商學院信義不動產研究發展中心-信義房屋房價指數(2020)。取自：首頁/地產知識/信義指數。https://www.ncscre.nccu.edu.tw/
國泰建設-房地產指數(2020)。取自：首頁/關於國建/房地產指數。https://www.cathay-red.com.tw/tw/About/House

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