本研究以2011~2019 年台灣上市上櫃公司為研究對象，以經理人淨持股數增加做為衡量經理人是否存在過度自信傾向，並納入自由現金流量、資本支出與研發費用探討各自對於公司績效之影響，以及與過度自信變數間的交乘效果為何。實證結果發現，經理人過度自信與三項經營績效指標皆呈正向顯著影響，代表經理人若存在過度自信傾向，確實可能會因為其人格特質，做出願意承擔風險的決策而獲得相對較高報酬；而自由現金流量之運用，與研發費用的投入對於公司績效之影響，會隨著投入程度之高低而產生不同影響，呈現非線性效果；當經理人存在過度自信行為時，與自由現金流量與資本支出之間的交乘效果，在部分績效指標中顯示會減弱原先的正向效果，而對於研發費用的調節效果則顯示，當研發費用增加時，平均來說本身是有害公司績效，但若經理人具有過度自信傾向，可能有助於公司在適合投入研發的時候不會過於保守而願意勇於投資，進而產生比較好的公司績效。

This study uses panel data from 2011 to 2019 to investigate overconfident CEOs and their influence on corporate performance. We define manager overconfidence by the increased net holdings of managers. In addition, we include free cash flow, capital expenditure, and R&D expenditure in the analysis to explore their respective impacts on corporate performance and their interaction effects with overconfidence variables. Our empirical results show that CEO overconfidence raises corporate performance. Since overconfident CEOs are more likely to take risks, taking risks may be paid off with higher profits for companies. Furthermore, the impacts of free cash flow and research and development expenses on corporate performance vary with the level of investment, showing a non-linear effect. The interaction term of overconfidence and free cash flow (capital expenditure) is negatively related to corporate performance. In contrast, the interaction term of overconfidence and R&D expenditure is positively associated with corporate performance. Again, the finding implies that overconfident CEO may help companies not to be too conservative and willing to invest in R&D activities properly, thus leading to better corporate performance.

論文審定書 i
致謝 ii
摘要 iii
Abstract iv
圖次 vi
表次 vii
第一章、緒論 1
1.1 研究背景及動機 1
1.2 研究目的 4
1.3 研究架構 5
第二章、文獻回顧及假說建立 6
2.1 經理人過度自信相關文獻 6
2.2 經理人過度自信與自由現金流量 8
2.3 經理人過度自信與資本支出 10
2.4 經理人過度自信與研發費用 12
第三章、研究方法與模型 14
3.1研究對象及樣本期間 14
3.2研究變數衡量與定義方法 15
3.3 研究模型 21
第四章、實證結果與分析 26
4.1 敘述性統計量分析 26
4.2 迴歸模型實證分析 27
4.3產業因素與過度自信之間影響-以電子業與非電子業比較 33
4.4景氣循環因素對於經理人過度自信行為之影響 35
第五章、結論與建議 39
5.1 研究結論 39
5.2 研究限制與後續建議 42
參考文獻 43

圖次
《圖4 - 1》經建會景氣對策信號 36

表次
《表3- 1》樣本在各產業分布狀況表 47
《表3- 2》樣本於各年度分布狀況 48
《表4- 1》敘述統計量表 49
《表4- 2》經理人過度自信對公司績效表現之迴歸分析 51
《表4- 3》自由現金流量、資本支出及研發費用與ROA之間影響 53
《表4- 8》過度自信與自由現金流量、資本支出、研發費用調節效果對於Tobin’s Q之影響 63
《表4- 9》 TEJ 電子業與非電子業公司 65
《表4- 10》電子業與非電子業其過度自信行為對公司績效影響之迴歸分析 66
《表4- 11》景氣循環中過度自信與ROA之迴歸分析 68
《表4- 12》景氣循環中過度自信與ROE之迴歸分析 70
《表4- 13》景氣循環中過度自信與Tobin’s Q之迴歸分析 72

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