本文探討高度仰賴進口能源的經濟體中，國際能源價格波動與政府能源補貼的總體經濟效果。本文建立納入進口能源與能源補貼的小型開放經濟新凱因斯模型，比較國際能源價格衝擊及政府支出衝擊下，貨幣融通與債券融通的動態反應。研究結果顯示，正向國際能源價格衝擊在兩種制度下皆使產出與私人消費下降。相較於債券融通，貨幣融通透過貨幣供給調整產生貨幣寬鬆效果，使初期通膨率與名目利率的上升幅度較小；債券融通則造成較大的初期通膨與利率反應，並使政府公債持續累積。在政府支出正向衝擊下，貨幣融通具有較強的短期產出擴張效果，但物價壓力較大；債券融通的通膨反應較溫和，卻產生較明顯的私人消費排擠與公債累積。敏感性分析顯示，提高能源補貼率雖能降低廠商負擔的能源價格，卻未必減少產出、消費及政府融通變數的波動，其效果取決於融通制度。總體而言，能源補貼將部分能源成本由廠商移轉至政府，並透過不同融通方式反映於貨幣供給、物價與政府債務。決策者應同時考量補貼規模與融通方式所造成的總體經濟影響。

This study examines the macroeconomic effects of international energy price fluctuations and government energy subsidies in economies highly dependent on imported energy. Using a small open-economy New Keynesian model, it compares responses to international energy price and government spending shocks under money financing and debt financing. A positive energy price shock reduces output and private consumption under both regimes. Money financing creates a monetary easing effect through money supply adjustments, moderating the initial increases in inflation and the nominal interest rate. Debt financing produces larger initial responses and sustained public debt accumulation. Following a positive government spending shock, money financing generates stronger short-run output growth but greater inflationary pressure, whereas debt financing results in milder inflation but greater crowding out of private consumption and higher public debt. Sensitivity analysis shows that a higher subsidy rate lowers firms' energy costs but does not necessarily stabilize output, consumption, or fiscal financing variables, with its effects depending on the financing regime. Overall, energy subsidies shift part of the energy cost burden from firms to the government, while the financing method determines how the resulting fiscal costs affect the money supply, inflation, and public debt. Policymakers should therefore consider both the scale and financing of energy subsidies.

論文審定書............................................................i
誌謝................................................................ii
摘要...............................................................iii
Abstract.............................................................iv

第一章 研究動機與背景.................................................1
第二章 文獻探討.......................................................3
第三章 模型...........................................................6
3.1 家戶部門..........................................................6
3.2 最終財廠商部門....................................................9
3.3 中間財廠商部門...................................................10
3.4 政府與貨幣當局...................................................14
3.4.1 政府的預算限制.................................................15
3.4.2 融通制度.......................................................16
3.5 外生衝擊.........................................................19
3.5.1 國際能源價格衝擊...............................................20
3.5.2 政府支出衝擊...................................................20
3.6 總體均衡.........................................................21
3.6.1 模型局部線性化之理由...........................................23

第四章 結果分析.....................................................24
4.1 參數校準.........................................................24
4.2 衝擊反應分析.....................................................27
4.2.1 國際能源價格衝擊...............................................28
4.2.2 政府支出衝擊...................................................32
4.3 敏感性分析.......................................................35

第五章 結論.........................................................41
圖表................................................................43
參考文獻............................................................57
附錄................................................................59

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