暴潮為劇烈的氣象因子影響海洋現象，透過氣壓或風應力等的氣象條件作用，會導致海表面的水位異常抬升，此現象稱為暴潮現象。當颱風暴潮發生於沿岸地區時，海水面可能出現高過平日的最高潮位，使陸地的河水無法排出，甚至發生海水越過堤防，導致沿岸地區發生潰堤及海水倒灌等淹水災害。
本研究透過分析各地潮汐水位測站水位資料，並使用SCHISM海流模式與第三代波浪數值模式WWM模式模擬暴潮，透過暴潮模式與波潮耦合模式模擬颱風期間所發生的暴潮現象，過程並進行模式網格網格細化、底床摩擦應力敏感度測試、風拖曳係數比對與風場資料比對以校正天文潮，求得較精準天文潮水位以利計算暴潮偏差。研究結果顯示台灣東岸測站於波潮耦合模式與暴潮模式中因東部海域水深深度較深導致模擬結果相近。在本研究案例中後壁湖測站皆觀察到較大的波揚現象發生，在尼伯特颱風後壁湖測站波潮耦合模式的最大暴潮偏差為55公分，暴潮模式為29公分，產生的波揚約為26公分，波揚佔總暴潮偏差的40%。而在尼莎颱風案例中，雖僅受同時間在南部輕颱的海棠颱風影響，但其波潮耦合模式水位為38公分，暴潮模式水位為20公分，波揚高度達18公分，波揚可以提供約總風暴潮水位的29%。故本研究欲透過分析觀測資料與數值模式模擬，探討在不同路徑及強度的颱風下，颱風對於台灣周邊海域的暴潮現象，與颱風期間波浪對於暴潮水位的貢獻，以作為未來台灣地區颱風暴潮預警。

Storm surge is a dramatic meteorological factor to affects ocean. Through meteorological parameter, such as air pressure or wind stress, it will make the water level rise abnormally. This kind of phenomenon is called storm surge. When a typhoon surge occurs in coastal areas, the mean sea level is probably higher than the highest tide level. It may not make the river water emit from the land to the ocean, even cross the dike, and result in the flooding disasters such as dike breaking and seawater intrusion in coastal areas.
This research analyzes the data of gauging stations in different places around Taiwan, and applies current model(SCHISM) and wave model(WWM) that base on unstructured grid to simulate storm surge when typhoon swwep through waters around Taiwan. During the calibration of model, We refine the grid of model and test the sensitivity of bottom friction coefficient, and then compares with the wind field data and chooses the equation of wind drag. The results of the study show that the result of the couple model is similar to the storm surge model on the east coast of Taiwan due to the deeper water depth in the eastern sea. HouBiHu station has lager wave setup during the typhoon case of Nepartak and Nesat. The maximum storm surge anomaly of couple model is 55 cm, and surge mode is 29 cm, and wave setup is about 26 cm which accounts for 40% of the total storm surge anomaly.
In the case of Nesat, HouBiHu station was only affected by HaiTang typhoon that sweeps through waters south of Taiwan at the same time, the storm surge anomaly of couple model is 38 cm, tnd surge mode is 20 cm, and wave setup is about 18 cm which accounts for 29% of the total storm surge anomaly. Therefore, this study intends to analyze the observational data and numerical model simulations to explore the phenomenon of the storm surge around Taiwan under different paths and intensities, and the contribution of wave to storm surge during the typhoon as a storm surge warning in Taiwan.

目錄
論文審定書 i
摘要 ii
Abstract iii
圖目錄 vii
表目錄 x
第1章 第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究問題與目的 2
第2章 第二章 文獻回顧 3
2.1 颱風暴潮機制 3
2.1.1 世界颱風暴潮案例 4
2.1.2 台灣颱風暴潮案例 8
2.2 颱風暴潮模式發展 12
2.3 輻射應力對水位之影響 13
2.4 颱風波浪推算 17
第3章 第三章 研究方法 19
3.1 海流模式 19
3.2 波浪模式 24
3.3 模式耦合 26
3.4 網格建置 28
3.5 模式初始場設定 30
3.6 風拖曳係數選用 31
3.7 風場資料比對 32
第4章 第四章 結果與討論 34
4.1 潮汐水位驗證 34
4.1.1 底床摩擦係數對振福及相位之敏感度測試 34
4.1.2 Verboom(1992)對底床摩擦係數的測試 40
4.1.3 天文潮汐水位驗證 51
4.2 案例探討 54
4.2.1 2016年尼伯特颱風(NEPARTAK) 55
4.2.2 2017年尼莎颱風(NESAT) 60
第5章 第五章 結論 65
5.1 結論 65
5.2 建議 66
參考文獻 67
附錄A 台灣各地潮位站的天文潮水位驗證 75
附錄B 台灣各地潮位站在不同底床摩擦係數設定的時序水位圖 83

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