本研究旨在探討全球半導體製造龍頭台積電（TSMC），如何依據其所屬之產業景氣循環以動態調整其兩項關鍵韌性策略——存貨週轉與現金緩衝，並評估此種動態調整對其財務績效的影響。

本文分析 2010 年至 2024 年的季度資料，檢驗存貨與現金持有對營業利益率及獲利波動性的影響，並引入半導體景氣循環作為調節變數。研究結果顯示，首先，台積電的存貨與現金水平並未隨景氣好壞呈現固定的平均水平調整。其次，就績效的直接影響而言，存貨天數與營業利益率呈顯著正向關係，暗示其庫存具備策略性價值，而非單純的成本負擔；而現金水平則與獲利波動呈顯著負向關係，支持其作為穩定營運的預防性緩衝機制。最核心的發現來自於景氣的調節效果：在景氣擴張期，降低存貨對提升獲利率的邊際效益顯著增強；然而，在景氣衰退時，增持現金對穩定獲利的額外效益則未達統計顯著。

本研究結論指出，企業韌性策略的有效性具有狀態依賴性，管理者應採取與景氣週期校準的治理模式。此發現亦凸顯在評估循環性產業的營運策略時，納入條件化效果模型之重要性。

This study investigates how Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), a global leader in the semiconductor manufacturing industry, dynamically adjusts its two key resilience strategies—inventory turnover and cash buffer—in response to industry business cycles, and evaluates the impact of these dynamic adjustments on its financial performance. Analyzing quarterly data from 2010 to 2024, this paper examines the effects of inventory and cash levels on operating profit margin and profit volatility, incorporating the semiconductor cycle as a moderating variable.

The results show, first, that TSMC's inventory and cash levels do not exhibit a fixed, average adjustment in tandem with business cycle fluctuations. Second, regarding their direct impact on performance, inventory days are significantly and positively correlated with operating profit margin, suggesting that inventory holds strategic value rather than being merely a cost burden. Conversely, cash levels are significantly and negatively associated with profit volatility, supporting their role as a preventive buffering mechanism for operational stability. The core finding emerges from the moderating effect of the business cycle: during periods of economic expansion, the marginal benefit of reducing inventory to enhance profitability is significantly amplified. However, during recessions, the additional benefit of holding more cash to stabilize profits is not statistically significant.

This study concludes that the effectiveness of corporate resilience strategies is state-dependent, requiring managers to adopt governance models that are calibrated to the business cycle. This finding also highlights the importance of incorporating conditional effect models when evaluating operational strategies in cyclical industries.

Table of Contents
論文審定書 i
中文摘要 ii
Abstract iii
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Background and Motivation 1
1.2 Research Objectives 3
1.3 Research Questions 3
1.4 Research Outline 4
Chapter 2 Literature Review 5
2.1 Semiconductor Cycle and Corporate Impact 5
2.11 Theories and Characteristics of the Semiconductor Cycle 5
2.12 Semiconductor Cycle and Its Effect on Corporate Operations and Finance 7
2.2 Inventory Management and Corporate Financial Performance 8
2.21 Inventory Management and its Effect on Corporate Financial Performance 8
2.22 Corporate Inventory Management Strategies under Business Cycle 10
2.3 Cash Buffer and Financial Resilience 11
2.31 The Rationale behind Corporate’s Cash Buffer or Cash Holdings 11
2.32 Cash Buffer and Its Effect on Corporate Financial Resilience 12
2.4 Chapter Review and Research Gap 14
2.5 Practical Implications of Key Concepts 15
Chapter 3 Research Methodology 17
3.1 Quantitative Research 17
3.2 Research Framework and Model 17
3.3 Research Hypotheses 18
3.4 Data Collection 19
3.41 Variable Definitions 19
3.42 Data Sources 21
3.43 Sample Selection 22
Chapter 4 Data Analysis 23
4.1 Data Analysis 23
4.11 Research Design and Variable Alignment 23
4.12 Baseline Empirical Specifications 25
4.13 Model Inference and Governance 27
4.2 Results 27
4.21 H1 Result 28
4.22 H2 Result 29
4.23 H3 Result 30
Chapter 5 Discussion And Suggestions 33
5.1 Managerial Recommendations and Implications 33
5.2 Limitations 35
5.3 Conclusion 37
References 39

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