摘要
2018年國民黨推出賣菜郎韓國瑜，以一瓶礦泉水和一碗滷肉飯，拼高雄市長選戰，讓政治關注度衝上顛峰，最後韓國瑜拿下89萬票，終結綠營長達20年的執政。但韓國瑜上任不到半年，隨即宣布角逐2020總統大位，被冠上落跑市長的罪名，在網路上開始大量出現負面聲量。號稱百年難得一見的政治奇才，在短短幾個月的時間內翻船，總統大位拱手讓人。到底是什麼戳破了韓國瑜的總統夢？媒體、社群超高的網路聲量，對於候選人的正負面報導和評價，是否影響選民投票決定？
本研究根據跨媒介議題設定效果和議題預示效果，考察主流媒體、PTT論壇對於候選人形象描述進行電腦內容分析；觀察各家不同時期的民調，比對主流媒體與PTT論壇上對於候選人個人特質的評價；來回答兩個重要的研究問題：（１）主流媒體的報導是否影響了PTT的討論；（２）主流媒體對選民的影響是否經PTT的中介。並觀察針對不同性別的候選人、不同層級的選戰當中，主流媒體的報導與社群媒體評論對於候選人人格特質描述的差異和變化，以及主流媒體報導和PTT的討論內容是否影響選民對候選人的支持度。針對新聞報導和PTT討論中的候選人形象，本研究將以長時間連續文本，運用電腦內容分析法，使用人格特質字典，對於韓國瑜、陳其邁和蔡英文三位候選人的人格特質進行計分。再以時間序列方法，比對民調顯示出的投票意願，觀察媒體、社群上對於候選人的描述，三者間的因果關係。

Abstract
Over a bottle of mineral water and a bowl of braised pork rice, the Kuomintang appointed Daniel Han to run for the Kaohsiung City mayoral election in 2018. This appointment aroused unprecedented public attention to politics. In the end, Daniel Han received 890,000 votes, ending the Democratic Progressive Party’s 20-year rule. After less than half a year in office, he announced his candidacy for the 2020 presidential election. The media called him the “runaway mayor,” and negative views of him began to appear on the Internet. Ultimately, he lost the presidential election and was recalled as the Kaohsiung City mayor. The factors that shattered Daniel Han's presidential dream are worth exploration. This study examines whether the media, views in the social communities, and the positive or negative reports and evaluations of candidates affect voter support.
Based on the intermedia agenda-setting effect and the issue priming effect, this study consists of （1)）a content analysis of candidates’ image descriptions by the mainstream media and on the online PTT forum; （2）observed public opinion polls by different polling organizations in different periods; （3） and a comparison of the mainstream media’s and the PTT forum’s evaluations of the candidates’ personal traits. The study aims to answer two important research questions:
1.Did the mainstream media reports influence the discussions on the PTT forum?
2.Was the mainstream media’s influence on voters affected by the PTT forum?
This study observed the differences and changes in the descriptions of candidates’ traits in the mainstream media and social communities. These characteristics included the candidates’ gender and election campaigns at different levels. The study also observed whether the discussions in the mainstream media and social communities affected voters’ support of candidates. Regarding the candidates’ images in the media and social communities, this study adopted a long-term continuous text analysis method, a computerized content analysis method, and a dictionary of adjectives to score the personal traits of the candidates of Daniel Han, Chen Chi-mai, and Tsai Ing-wen. Finally, the study compared the descriptions of these candidates in the polls, the media, and the social communities using a time series analysis method and explored the causal relationship among the three.

論文審定書 ……………………………………………… i
誌謝 ………………………………………………………ii
中文摘要 …………………………………………………iii
英文摘要 ………………………………………………iv
第一章 緒論………………………………………………1
第一節 研究背景…………………………………………1
第二節 研究動機與目的…………………………………5
第三節 研究問題…………………………………………9
第二章 文獻探討………………………………………10
第一節 候選人特質及其維度…………………………10
第二節 跨媒介議題設定效果…………………………15
第三節 預示效果………………………………………17
第三章研究方法………………………………………20
第一節 電腦內容分析的樣本…………………………20
第二節 電腦內容分析的方法…………………………22
第四章研究結果…………………………………………28
第一節 描述性統計……………………………………28
第二節 假說驗證………………………………………31
第五章 結論與建議……………………………………55
第一節 研究發現與結論………………………………56
第二節 研究貢獻、限制與建議………………………61
參考文獻…………………………………………………67
（一）中文版 …………………………………………67
（二）英文版 …………………………………………69
（三）網路資料 ………………………………………72
附錄一、原始程式碼…………………………………73
A.1 media data…………………………………………73
A.2 PTT data……………………………………………74
A.3 can_media_tm.RData H1-H3……………………… 76
A.4 can_PPT_tm.RData H4-H6、RQ3………………… 79
A.5 time series analysis…………………………………83
附錄二、五大人格特質字典…………………………100
（一）英文版 …………………………………………100
（二）中文版 …………………………………………101
附錄三、各民調蒐集…………………………………107

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網路資料
1.中選會網站歷屆總統、直轄市長選舉候選人得票明細取自網址: https://www.cec.gov.tw/
2.中國時報（2020.06.26）網軍帶風向價碼 網站全都露取自網址:
https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20200626000332-260118?chdtv
3.喀報（2020.06.04）PTT 鄉民現象
取自網址: https://castnet.nctu.edu.tw/index.php/castnet/article/522
4.創市際市場研究顧問公司(2012)。網路口碑可信度。取自網址: http://www.dma.org.tw/upload/ResourceReport/2012102405063 5145.pdf
5.Jan's Tech Blog(2021)臺灣FB、IG人口統計 (2021年1月)取自網址:
https://tech.azuremedia.net/2021/02/15/8460/
6.CFH健康知識網(2017)
取自網址:
http://cfh.com.tw/ClassifyByDisease/%E8%85%A6-%E7%A5%9E%E7%B6%93%E7%B3%BB%E7%B5%B1-%E7%B2%BE%E7%A5%9E%E7%A7%91/Mar--2017/%E4%BA%BA%E9%A1%9E%E6%80%A7%E6%A0%BC%E7%89%B9%E8%B3%AA%EF%BC%9A%E4%BA%94%E5%A4%A7%E5%9B%A0%E7%B4%A0%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B.aspx