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論文名稱 Title |
利用文字探勘技術分析媒體預測電玩遊戲銷售量 A Research on Video Game Sales Forecast using Text Mining Techniques |
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系所名稱 Department |
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畢業學年期 Year, semester |
語文別 Language |
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學位類別 Degree |
頁數 Number of pages |
68 |
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研究生 Author |
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指導教授 Advisor |
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召集委員 Convenor |
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口試委員 Advisory Committee |
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口試日期 Date of Exam |
2024-01-23 |
繳交日期 Date of Submission |
2024-02-06 |
關鍵字 Keywords |
文字探勘、電玩遊戲、線上評論、情緒分析、主題模型、銷售預測 text mining, video game, online review, sentiment analysis, topic model, sale prediction |
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統計 Statistics |
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中文摘要 |
電玩遊戲在全球娛樂產業已然成為不可或缺的一環,龐大的商機伴隨著激烈的競爭,提高銷售量對於產業極為重要。在遊戲發售前,開發商會釋出相關宣傳內容和預購活動,藉此刺激玩家搶先購買;玩家可以閱讀相關資訊,或是透過媒體評論來評估是否符合預期。在預購期間資訊不對等的情形下,容易造成期望與實際落差過大時,加速遊戲提早進入衰退,最終影響遊戲銷售量和品牌形象。 本研究結合主題模型和情緒分析,對2018年Metacritic評論資料和VGChartz四周銷售量資料進行分析,將每則評論依據遊戲元素進行分類,透過預測分析網路評論是否對於遊戲銷售量產生影響,並從中探討媒體評論和玩家評論是否存在差異。 根據研究結果發現富含文本的資料集有較佳的表現,在遊戲初期銷售量受媒體評論所影響,後期則受玩家參與度與口碑影響,其中影響最重要的主題是遊戲玩法。媒體在情緒表現上傾向一致,相反的,玩家則是具有強烈的個人色彩。 |
Abstract |
Game has become an indispensable part of the global entertainment industry, with vast business opportunities accompanied by increasingly fierce competition. Enhancing sales is crucial for the industry. Prior to the release of a game, developers release promotional content and pre-order campaigns to stimulate players to purchase in advance. Players can read related information or evaluate through media reviews to see if it meets their expectations. During the pre-order period, information asymmetry led to a significant gap between expectations and reality, accelerating the game's decline and ultimately affecting the game's sales volume and brand image. This research combines topic model and sentiment analysis to analyze data from 2018 Metacritic reviews and four weeks of sales volume data from VGChartz. Each review is categorized based on game elements, and predictive analysis is used to determine whether online reviews affect game sales volumes, exploring differences between media reviews and player reviews. This research found that datasets rich in textual perform better, with early sales influenced by media reviews and later sales by player engagement and word of mouth, with gameplay being the most important topic. Media sentiment tends to be uniform, while player feedback is highly individualistic. |
目次 Table of Contents |
論文審定書i 誌謝ii 摘要iii Abstractiv 圖次vii 表次viii 第一章 緒論1 第一節研究背景與動機1 第二節研究目的2 第三節研究限制3 第二章 文獻探討4 第一節電玩遊戲概述及發展4 第二節遊戲銷售5 第三節網路評論11 第四節遊戲元素13 第三章 研究方法16 第一節資料搜集17 第二節資料清理21 第三節情緒分析26 第四節主題模型27 第五節預測模型30 第四章 研究結果34 第一節遊戲聲量及情緒分析34 第二節媒體與玩家評論主題比較40 第三節銷售量預測之分析43 第五章 討論與結論50 第一節結論50 第二節管理意涵51 第三節建議51 參考文獻53 附錄56 附錄A 發行商分類56 附錄B 開發商分類57 附錄C 遊戲前五週銷售量分佈59 |
參考文獻 References |
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