雖然氣候變遷的調適最備受矚目，但以地方為中心的調適規劃需要考慮在地社區關注的多種相互作用的壓力源。這正是台南七股的情況，一個擁有豐富多樣生態的台灣沿海地區，從紅樹林到鹽田，滋養魚類到鳥類（如瀕臨滅絕的黑面琵鷺）。它的魚塭水產養殖、牡蠣養殖、生態旅遊也是經濟上重要的產業。然而，沙源供應減少造成地形變遷，七股潟湖的沙洲侵蝕、變窄、高度降低、往內移動，潟湖縮小變淺。進口廉價水產品與高漲的水產養殖成本威脅在地的生計。大規模光電預計將對七股帶來重大的衝擊。而且七股是一個鄉村地區，面臨人口減少與老齡化問題，達到世界衛生組織定義的「超高齡社會」。
這些多重壓力源促使一個參與式建模過程的設計、實施及評估，讓多種相異的利害相關者參與社會學習。這個過程包括從田野瞭解豐富的背景，使用彩虹圖和權力–利益矩陣分析利害相關者，運用小組建模/群體建模的脚本組織會議，協助參加者分享他們的希望與害怕、定義他們關心的問題變量怎麼隨時間變化、共同繪畫問題的因果環路圖、量化系統動態學的模型，以及討論情景和可能行動的模擬。
結果表明參與式建模可以支持社會學習以幫助長期的調適。參加者具有系統思考的視野，更好地理解動態與建立更密切的關係。這個初步探索或可啟發參與式建模在調適規劃中的應用，並提出改進建議。

While climate change adaptation captures the most attention, a place-centered adaptation planning requires consideration of multiple interacting stressors that local communities concern. This is the case for Cigu, a coastal area in Taiwan that contains rich and diverse ecosystems ranging from mangroves to salt fields, and from fish to birds (e.g., endangered black-faced spoonbill). It is also economically noteworthy for fish-pond aquaculture, oyster farming and ecotourism. However, decrease in sediment transport causes geomorphological change. Sand barrier islands of Cigu Lagoon have eroded, narrowed, lowered and moved landwards. Imported aquaculture products and increasing aquaculture costs threaten local livelihood. Large-scale photovoltaics are expected to bring major impacts to Cigu. And Cigu is a rural area with decreasing, aging population, becoming a “super-aged society”. These multiple stressors prompted a participatory modeling process designed, conducted and evaluated to engage diverse stakeholders for social learning. In this process, rich context was learned from the field. Stakeholders were identified and mapped using a stakeholder rainbow diagram and a power–interest grid. Group Model Building scripts were used to organize meetings, facilitating participants to share their hopes and fears, to draw graphs over time of the variables they concerned, to draw causal loop diagram of the problem together, to quantify System Dynamic model, and to discuss scenarios and policy simulations. The results show that participatory modeling can support social learning for long-term adaptation. Participants have systems thinking perspectives, better understanding of the dynamics and closer relationships. This initial exploration may illuminate application of participatory modeling in adaptation planning and suggest future improvements.

Thesis Validation Letter i
Acknowledgement ii
摘要 iii
Abstract iv
Contents v
List of Figures ix
List of Tables xii
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Research background 1
1.2 Research purpose 9
1.3 Structure of the dissertation 10
Chapter 2 Overview of the relevant literature 11
2.1 Multiple interacting stressors 11
2.2 Condition of the local residents 14
2.3 Multiple stressors in Cigu 19
2.3.1 Geomorphological change of Cigu Lagoon and sea level rise 19
2.3.2 Population decrease and aging 23
2.3.3 Large-scale installation of photovoltaics systems in Cigu 25
2.3.4 Imported aquaculture products 26
2.3.5 Increasing costs of aquaculture 27
2.4 The lens of multiple capitals 28
2.5 Participatory modeling 32
2.5.1 System Dynamics 35
2.5.2 Participatory System Dynamics 39
Chapter 3 Methodology 43
3.1 Research flow 43
3.2 Fact finding 46
3.2.1 Identifying and getting acquainted with stakeholders 47
3.2.2 Interviews 51
3.3 Participatory modeling (PM) meetings 53
3.4 Post-PM-meeting evaluation 60
Chapter 4 Results 66
4.1 Results of the interviews 66
4.2 Results of the PM meetings 68
4.2.1 Hopes and Fears 68
4.2.2 Reference mode 70
4.2.3 Causal loop diagram (CLD) 71
4.2.4 Quantitative model formulation 76
4.3 Simulation of base run 80
4.3.1 Aquaculture sector 81
4.3.2 Population sector 84
4.3.3 Living convenience sector 86
4.4 Simulations of scenarios 87
4.4.1 Geomorphological change scenarios 87
4.4.2 Variable costs scenarios 90
4.4.3 Price of substitutes scenarios 92
4.5 Simulations of policy scenarios 93
4.5.1 Improve aquaculture techniques to increase aquaculture density 95
4.5.2 Improve aquaculture techniques to decrease aquaculture death fraction 96
4.5.3 More favorable loan interest rates—reduce fixed costs 98
4.5.4 Electricity price subsidies—reduce variable costs 99
4.5.5 Aquaculture and intertidal fisheries cooperate with ecotourism—generate additional incomes 100
4.5.6 Increase production value by increasing demand of aquaculture products—higher purchasing power 101
4.5.7 Improve public transport convenience 102
4.5.8 Comparison of the action ideas / policy options 103
4.6 Results of the post-PM-meeting evaluation 105
Chapter 5 Discussion 110
5.1 Perceptions of the participated stakeholders 110
5.2 Existing and potential adaptation strategies 116
5.3 Evaluation of the participatory modeling 124
5.4 Methodological reflections and implications for research 128
5.5 Limitations 133
5.6 Other lessons learned and recommendations 135
Chapter 6 Concluding remarks 139
6.1 Conclusions 139
6.2 Suggestions for further research 142
References 145
References in English 145
References in Chinese 158
Appendix A Details of the participatory modeling process 163
Context characteristics 163
Pre-PM-meeting activities 164
Modeling Team 165
Participants 166
Planning Logistics 166
PM meeting 1 167
PM meeting 2 171
PM meeting 3 176
PM meeting 4 177
PM meeting 5 179
PM meeting 6 180
Adapted script—Nominal Group Technique for Graphs Over Time’s Variable Elicitation 182
Appendix B Translated CICC questionnaire 187
Appendix C Model equations and Documentation 193
Aquaculture sector 193
Population sector 203
Living convenience sector 209
Appendix D Responses to the comments of oral examination committee members 211
Assoc. Prof. Shiau-Yun Lu 211
Prof. Meng-Tsung Lee 212
Asst. Prof. Pierre-Alexandre Château 216
Dr. Wei-yang Wang 217
Prof. Yang-Chi Chang 218

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