2013年，中國大陸地區提出了一個全球性的基礎建設發展策略：「一帶一路」，係目前公認中國大陸地區影響力最大的外交政策。2015年3月，中國大陸地區發布首份有關「一帶一路」政策的白皮書《推動共建絲綢之路經濟帶和21世紀海上絲綢之路的願景與行動》，故本研究以2015年3月作為「一帶一路」的正式實施時間。其主要目的在於透過建設各地貿易連通路線，藉以連接中國大陸地區與歐洲、非洲、亞洲等國家，促進經濟之共同發展。隨著「一帶一路」政策的快速發展，大量的資金與資源流向「一帶一路」沿線地區，也大幅推升參與城市的經濟發展。由於房價成長深受地區經濟與基礎建設的影響，因此本研究採用差異中之差異模型，來探討「一帶一路」對城市房價指數的影響程度。本研究使用了中國大陸地區70個大、中型城市的每月房價指數資料，資料集當中包含四種不同規模的新建商品住宅和二手住宅資料，樣本時間從2011年1月到2020年12月。本研究的主要目的是透過深入探討「一帶一路」對參與城市房價指數的影響程度，提供施政者更多元的政策建議，以穩定並協助各城市的房價發展。
根據本研究的結果，可以歸納出兩點結論：第一，參與「一帶一路」的城市房價指數成長幅度明顯高於其他未參與城市；第二，實質國內生產毛額、生產者價格指數、熱錢、貿易差額以及無本金交割的遠期合約等因素亦對房價指數的上漲產生重要的影響，與「一帶一路」的參與與否並列為重要的推升因素。

China proposed the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013 as a strategy for expanding global infrastructure. To date, it has been the most influential international foreign policy. In March 2015, the first policy white paper on the BRI, "Vision and Actions for Promoting the Construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road," was released. Therefore, this paper considers this as when the BRI was officially implemented. The BRI aims to foster the economy's growth by creating commercial corridors linking China to Europe, Asia, and Africa. With the development of the BRI, a substantial quantity of capital and resources came to the area, bolstering the economic expansion of the participating cities. We used the Difference-in-Differences (DID) model to examine the gap in the house prices index (HPI) between cities that are and are not part of the BRI. In this study, we use the monthly HPI data for 70 large and medium-sized cities in China, which contains data sets for new and second-hand buildings in four size categories from January 2011 to December 2020. This study aims to provide policymakers with better policy recommendations and help stabilize HPI in cities along the BRI through an in-depth analysis.
The key findings of this paper are twofold. Firstly, cities participating in the BRI demonstrate significantly higher HPI growth compared to non-participating cities. This indicates the positive impact of BRI involvement on housing prices. Secondly, we conclude that factors such as GDP, producer price indexes, hot money, the balance of trade, and non-deliverable forward contracts substantially influence HPI growth, in addition to the effect of BRI participation.

論文審定書 i
誌謝 ii
摘要 iii
Abstract iv
Contents v
LIST OF FIGURES vii
LIST OF TABLES viii
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Background and Motivation 1
1.2 Purpose 7
1.3 Contribution 8
Chapter 2 Literature reviews 10
2.1 Existing explanations for the housing market 10
2.2 Determinants of house prices in China 12
2.3 Is China experiencing a real estate bubble? 14
Chapter 3 Data and Methodology 17
3.1 Data 17
3.2 Data description 19
3.3 Summary statistics 23
3.4 Model setting 26
Chapter 4 Empirical result 27
4.1 Parallel trends 27
4.2 Regression result 29
4.3 Robustness test 39
4.3.1 Placebo test 39
4.3.2 Other Robustness tests 44
Chapter 5 Conclusion and suggestions 46
5.1 Conclusion 46
5.2 Limitations and Suggestions 48
REFERENCE 50

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