本文以 Kouri (1976) 模型為基礎，將房屋市場納入封閉經濟的資產組合平衡模型，並利用該模型來研究政府的相關財政政策（包括興建社會住宅和課徵租賃所得稅）將如何影響房屋價格和房屋存量的動態調整。為了突顯房屋價格具有前瞻性特徵，本文分析政府實施宣告與未宣告的社會住宅支出增加政策。藉由不同政策的實施，我們可以比較這兩種政策在房屋價格和房屋存量的動態變化模式上的差異。並得出以下結論：
一、不論是否進行宣告效果，恆久性的社會住宅支出增加，將造成長期均衡改變，其中包括房屋價格下跌和房屋存量增加，進而達成當局最初設定之目標。
二、不論是否進行宣告效果，暫時性的增加社會住宅支出，皆會產生短暫性的房價下跌效應。對於政府當局來說是一個短期有效的政策選擇。
三、提升租賃所得稅率，可造成房屋市場的價格與數量皆下跌，甚至在期初，民眾會過度反應，使房屋價格崩跌。

Based on the Kouri (1976) model, this thesis incorporates the housing market into the closed-economy portfolio balance model, and uses it to examine how the government's housing policies (including constructing social housing and levying taxes on rental income for housing) will govern the dynamic adjustment of housing prices and quantities. To highlight the fact that housing prices is characterized by the forward-looking feature, this thesis discusses the both unanticipated and anticipated housing policies implemented by the government.
Three conclusions are found from our analysis. Firstly, regardless of whether a permanent expansion in constructing social housing is pre-announced or not, a permanent increase in constructing social housing implemented by the government tends to raise the housing stock and lower the housing prices. This result reflects that the government can
achieve its goal of reducing the housing prices by way of the policy of constructing social housing. Secondly, regardless of whether a temporary expansion in constructing social housing is pre-announced or not, a temporary rise in constructing social housing implemented by the government leads to a temporary decline in the housing prices. Third, a rise in taxes on rental income for housing tends to lower the housing stock and the housing prices. Moreover, the short-run decline in the housing prices will overshoot its long-run response along the transition path.

論文審定書 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i
誌謝 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii
中文摘要 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii
英文摘要 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iv
第一章 緒論 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
第一節 前言 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
第二節 文獻回顧 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
第三節 本文架構 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
第二章 理論模型 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
第一節 模型基礎 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
第二節 均衡分析 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
第三章 財政政策效果 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
第一節 未預期的恆常性政策 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
第二節 未預期的暫時性政策 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
第三節 預料到的恆常性政策 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
第四節 預料到的暫時性政策 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
第五節 租賃所得稅 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
第四章 結論 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
參考文獻 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
附錄 A . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
附錄 B . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

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