自1992 年以來，外籍勞工(特別是低技術勞工) 變成台灣越來越重要的勞動力來源。本文使用DSGE 模型，研究台灣引進低技術勞工的總體經濟影響。由於低技術移工與本國低技術勞工具有高度的替代性，當低技術移工增加會使本國低技術勞工的實質工資下降。由於高技術勞工與低技術勞工有互補性，所以當低技術移工增加，會使高技術勞工的生產力提升，進而讓高技術勞工的實質工資增加。同時，當資本的邊際產出增加，使得投資也增加，進而提高整體產出。從福利的角度來看，低技術移工的增加，使得本國高技術勞工的福利增加，但降低了本國低技術勞工的福利。

Migrant workers are an increasingly important labor source for Taiwan since early 1992, particularly for low-skilled labor. This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of importing low-skilled workers in Taiwan, using a calibrated DSGE model. Since low-skilled migrant workers tend to be highly substitutable with domestic low-skilled workers, an increase in low-skilled migrant workers suppresses the real wage rate of the domestic low-skilled workers. As high-skilled labor is complements to low-skilled labor, an increase in low-skilled migrant workers raises the productivity of high-skilled workers and their real wage. Also, more migrant workers drives up marginal product of capital, increasing investment and thus overall output. From the perspective of welfare, an increase in low-skilled foreign workers elevates the welfare of high-skilled workers but lowers the welfare of domestic low-skilled workers.

口試委員會審定書. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i
摘要 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii
Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii
第1 章緒論. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
第2 章文獻回顧. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
第3 章模型設定. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
3.1 家計部門. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
3.1.1 儲蓄者. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
3.1.2 非儲蓄者. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
3.1.3 低技術移工. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
3.2 廠商. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
3.3 政府. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
3.4 市場結清. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
第4 章參數設定. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
4.1 實際資料. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
4.2 文獻中的參數設定. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
4.3 自行假設. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
第5 章模擬分析. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
5.1 基本分析. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
5.2 在不同勞動替代性之影響. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
5.3 在不同生產函數總份額之影響. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
5.4 不同技術勞工的福利變動. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
第6 章結論. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
參考文獻. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
附錄. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
A.1 最適化條件. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
A.2 穩定條件. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
A.3 線性化方程式. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

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