本文在具有環境限制的導向型技術進步內生成長模型之下，假設經濟體系由政府部門、廠商及家計單位組成。廠商可分為兩種部門，分別是永續部門與汙染部門。而政府部門可以透過環境政策改變R&D廠商的決策，進而影響經濟體系技術進步的偏向性。由於R&D廠商在進行決策時會考量未來的所有利潤，因此，當政府部門提前宣告未來將會實施環境政策時會有宣示效果，R&D廠商在接收到訊息時將會立即改變決策，透過短期的宣示效果，將會放大環境政策的效果，使政府部門在面對環境政策與經濟成長的權衡中，需要更謹慎的進行決策。

This paper introduces directed technical changes in an endogenous growth model with environment constraints. In my framework, I assume that the model economy consists of government, firm, and household sectors. In the firm sector, producers are divided into the two groups: (1) the firms that produce goods without polluting the environment (clean sector); (2) the firms whose production process generates environmental pollution (dirty sector). More importantly, I suppose that the research and development (R&D) firm's success of innovation may generate the stream of profits for the next several periods. Given that the R&D firm's innovation activities are crucially related to its future profits, the government can implement some environmental policies in the future to affect today's innovation of technologies in the dirty and clean sectors. To be more specific, based on the quantitative analysis, I can find that the future rises in pollution taxes and subsidies for clean industries can boost the development of clean technologies in advance (before the implementation of those environmental policies). Therefore, when facing the trade-off between the environmental protection and the economic growth, the government should be more careful to design environmental policies as these policies may lead to announcement effects on the development of technologies across the dirty and clean sectors.

論文審定書 i
誌謝 ii
摘要 iii
Abstract iv
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與背景 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
第二節 文獻回顧 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
第三節 本文架構 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
第二章 模型設定 8
第一節 複合性最終財廠商 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
第二節 永續部門與污染部門最終財廠商 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
第三節 永續部門與污染部門中間財廠商 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
第四節 R&D 廠商 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
I 創新可能前緣 (innovation possibilities frontier) . . . . . . . . . . . 15
II 科學家期望利潤 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
第五節 家計單位 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
第六節 科學家決策 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
第七節 競爭均衡 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
第三章 動態分析 32
第一節 數值分析 (numerical analysis) 步驟與參數調校 (calibration) . . . . 32
I 期初值的決定 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
II 科學家的最適時間路徑 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
III 家計單位效用函數與環境品質轉換 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
第二節 自由放任 (laissez-faire) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
第三節 未預料到的外生衝擊 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
第四節 預料到的外生衝擊 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
第五節 穩健性測試 (robustness check) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
I 不同創新成功率下對經濟體系的影響 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
II 不同替代彈性下對經濟體系的影響 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
III 延後實施環境政策對經濟體系的影響 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
IV 延長專利權期限對經濟體系的影響 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
第四章 結論 46
圖表 48
參考文獻 69
附錄 74
附錄 A 證明 Vt 極大值發生在 Sct = {0, St} . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
附錄 B St 及 Sct 時間路徑說明 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82

一、中文文獻
賴景昌 (1994)。國際金融理論：進階，台北，茂昌。
賴景昌 (2018)。內生成長理論，講義。
賴景昌 (2018)。R&D 內生成長理論：導向的技術進步，講義。
二、英文文獻
Acemoglu, Daron. (1998). “Why do new technologies complement skills?
Directed technical change and wage inequality.” Quarterly Journal of
Economics 113(4): 1055-1089.
Acemoglu, Daron. (2002). “Directed technical change.” Review of Economic Studies 69(4): 781-809.
Acemoglu, Daron. (2003). “Patterns of skill premia.” Review of Economic
Studies 70(2): 199-230.
Acemoglu, Daron. (2007). “Equilibrium bias of technology.” Econometrica
75(5): 1371-1409.
Acemoglu, Daron. (2009). Introduction to Modern Economic Growth. Princeton University Press.
Acemoglu, Daron. (2010). “When does labor scarcity encourage innovation?.” Journal of Political Economy 118(6): 1037-1078.
Acemoglu, Daron, Philippe Aghion, Leonardo Bursztyn, and David Hemous. (2012). “The environment and directed technical change.” American Economic Review 102(1): 131-66.
Aghion, Philippe, and Peter Howitt. (1992). “A model of growth through
creative destruction.” Econometrica 60(2): 323-351.
Aghion, Philippe, and Peter Howitt. (1998). Endogenous Growth Theory.
MIT Press.
Aghion, Philippe. (2002). “Schumpeterian growth theory and the dynamics
of income inequality.” Econometrica 70(3): 855-882.
Aghion, Philippe, and Peter Howitt. (2009). The Economics of Growth.
MIT Press.
Aghion, Philippe, Antoine Dechezlepretre, David Hemous, Ralf Martin,
and John Van Reenen. (2016). “Carbon taxes, path dependency, and
directed technical change: Evidence from the auto industry.” Journal of
Political Economy 124(1): 1-51.
Aoki, Masanao. (1985). “Misadjustment to anticipated shocks: An example
of exchange-rate response.” Journal of International Money and Finance
4(3): 415-420.
Aoki, Masanao. (1986). “Effects of anticipated real supply shocks and coordinated monetary accommodation.” The Economic Studies Quarterly
37(2): 134-150.
Bosetti, Valentina, Carlo Carraro, Emanuele Massetti, and Massimo Tavoni.
(2008). “International energy R&D spillovers and the economics of greenhouse gas atmospheric stabilization.” Energy Economics 30(6): 2912-
2929.
Bovenberg, A. Lans, and Sjak A. Smulders. (1995). “Environmental quality and pollution-augmenting technological change in a two-sector endogenous growth model.” Journal of Public Economics 57(3): 369-391.
Buonanno, Paolo, Carlo Carraro, and Marzio Galeotti. (2003). “Endogenous induced technical change and the costs of Kyoto.” Resource and Energy economics 25(1): 11-34.
Chen, Kuan-Jen, Angus C. Chu, and Ching-Chong Lai. (2018). “Home
production and small open economy business cycles.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 95: 110-135
Chen, Kuan-Jen, Ching-Chong Lai, and Ting-Wei Lai. (2020). “Directed
technical change, technology spillovers, and asset pricing.” Working Paper.
Dornbusch, Rudiger. (1976). “Expectations and exchange rate dynamics.”
Journal of Political Economy 84(6): 1161-1176.
Epifani, Paolo, and Gino Gancia. (2008). “The skill bias of world trade.”
The Economic Journal 118(530): 927-960.
Gray, Malcolm R., and Stephen J. Turnovsky. (1979). “The stability of
exchange rate dynamics under perfect myopic foresight.” International
Economic Review, 643-660.
Grossman, Gene M., and Elhanan Helpman. (1991). “Quality ladders in
the theory of growth.” Review of Economic Studies 58(1): 43-61.
Heijdra, Ben J. (2017). Foundations of Modern Macroeconomics. Oxford
University Press.
Lucas Jr, Robert E. (1998). “On the mechanics of economic development.”
Journal of Monetary Economics 22(1): 3-42.
Lynas, Mark. (2008). Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet. National
Geographic Books.
Moore, Mark P., and Priya Ranjan. (2005). “Globalisation vs skill‐biased
technological change: Implications for unemployment and wage inequality.” The Economic Journal 115(503): 391-422.
Nordhaus, William D. (1994). Managing the Global Commons: The Economics of Climate Change. MIT Press.
Nordhaus, William D., and Zili Yang. (1996). “A regional dynamic generalequilibrium model of alternative climate-change strategies.” American
Economic Review, 741-765.
Nordhaus, William D., and Joseph G. Boyer. (1999). “Requiem for Kyoto: an economic analysis of the Kyoto Protocol.” The Energy Journal
20.Special Issue-The Cost of the Kyoto Protocol: A Multi-Model Evaluation. 93-130.
Nordhaus, William D., and Joseph Boyer. (2000). Warming the World:
Economic Models of Global Warming. MIT Press.
Nordhaus, William D. (2007). “A review of the Stern review on the economics of climate change.” Journal of Economic Literature 45(3): 686-
702.
Nordhaus, William D. (2008). A Question of Balance: Weighing the Options
on Global Warming Policies. Yale University Press.
Pan, Shiyuan, Heng-fu Zou, and Tailong Li. (2012). “Patent protection,
technological change and wage inequality.” No. 537. CEMA Working
Paper.
Popp, David. (2004). “ENTICE: endogenous technological change in the
DICE model of global warming.” Journal of Environmental Economics
and management 48(1): 742-768.
Romer, Paul M. (1986). “Increasing returns and long-run growth.” Journal
of Political Economy 94(5): 1002-1037.
Romer, Paul M. (1987). “Growth based on increasing returns due to specialization.” American Economic Review 77(2): 56-62.
Romer, Paul M. (1990). “Endogenous technological change.” Journal of
Political Economy 98(5), Part 2: S71-S102.
Schumpeter, Joseph. (1942). “Creative destruction.” Capitalism, Socialism
and Democracy. 825: 82-85.
Stern, Nicholas. (2007). The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern
Review. Cambridge University Press.
Stern, Nicholas. (2009). A Blueprint for a Safer Planet: How to Manage Climate Change and Create a New Era of Progress and Prosperity. Bodley
Head.
Thoenig, Mathias, and Thierry Verdier. (2003). “A theory of defensive
skill-biased innovation and globalization.” American Economic Review
93(3): 709-728.
Van der Zwaan, Bob CC, Reyer Gerlagh, and Leo Schrattenholzer. (2002).
“Endogenous technological change in climate change modelling.” Energy
Economics 24(1): 1-19.
Wilson, Charles A. (1979). “Anticipated shocks and exchange rate dynamics.” Journal of Political Economy 87(3): 639-64.