在激烈的全球緊張局勢和危機中，對威脅的看法如何影響不斷下降的機構信任？公民的不安全感在多大程度上與對強有力領導的支持的令人著迷的增加有關？
在這篇論文中，我研究了威脅認知如何影響政府對強有力領導理念的信任和支持。基於政治學內外各個子領域的信任、威脅和威權主義的交叉理論，我推測公民對政府形成不同的看法取決於威脅的心理距離。也就是說，(a) 如果威脅本質上是社會性的（“遠程威脅”），他們往往會對政府形成良好的態度；然而，(b) 如果威脅本質上是針對個人的（“近端威脅”），他們往往會對政府產生不信任的態度。由於背景性社會威脅主要涉及國家生存和主權，政府無論如何都要捍衛這些威脅，而且這種威脅的存在並不完全是他們的錯，因此公民傾向於獎勵政府（通過賦予信心）。相比之下，個人威脅通常被認為是政府表現不佳的結果，公民變得更加挑剔，因此將責任歸咎於政治人物，公民傾向於懲罰政府（通過撤回信心）。然而，由於情感上不安全和受到威脅的公民將被迫尋找方法來應對和減輕他們的憤怒和焦慮，他們更有可能支持和接受非民主政治選擇和獨裁替代方案的想法。
我通過合併民主國家和獨裁國家的微觀數據和宏觀因素來實證檢驗這些論點。實證結果在不同的規範和威脅感知的替代衡量標準中都是穩健的。為了更豐富、更具體地說明不同的威脅對公民表達對政府的信任和支持強勢領導人的傾向的影響，我測試了菲律賓和台灣的比較經驗——這兩個國家受到近端和遠端威脅的後威權民主國家。當代世界。
這些發現給民主帶來了有利的消息，也帶來了不利的消息。也就是說，雖然對可能顛覆反“專制化”的鬥爭持謹慎樂觀的態度是合理的，但在比較背景下，一些個案表現出了民主倒退的初步症狀。總體而言，實證結果不僅通過強調公民對心理安全和秩序的衝動完善了流行的政治信任理論模型，而且還證明了個人主義在當前不斷容易發生危機和危機的政治格局中具有持久的（理念和實踐）吸引力。流行病。

Amidst seething global tensions and crises, how do perceptions of threats affect declining institutional trust? To what extent are citizen’s feelings of insecurity associated with the enthralling rise of support for strong leadership?
In this dissertation, I investigate how threat perceptions affect governmental trust and support for the idea of strong leadership. Building on the intersecting theories of trust, threat and authoritarianism in the various subfields within and beyond political science, I theorized that citizens form dissimilar opinions toward governments depending on the psychological distance of the threat. That is, (a) if the threat is societal in nature (‘distal threats’) they tend to form agreeable attitudes toward the government; whereas, (b) if the threat is personal in nature (‘proximal threats’), they tend to develop distrusting attitude toward the government. Because contextually social threats mostly deal with national survival and sovereignty which governments are expected to defend no matter what and it is not entirely their fault why it exists, citizens tend to reward the government (by endowing confidence). In contrast, contextually personal threats are generally perceived as a consequence of underperforming governments and one in which citizens become more critical and hence attribute blame to the political incumbents, citizens tend to punish the government (by withdrawing confidence). However, because emotionally insecure and threatened citizenry will be compelled to look for means to cope with and alleviate their anger and anxiety, they are more likely to support and entertain the idea of nondemocratic political options and authoritarian alternatives.
I empirically test these arguments through merging micro-level data and macro-level factors for both democracies and autocracies. The empirical findings are robust across different specifications and alternative measures of threat perceptions. To offer a richer and more concrete illustration of the effect of differentiated threats on citizens’ tendency to express trust in government and propensity to support strong leaders, I tested the comparative experiences of Philippines and Taiwan—two proximally and distally threatened post-authoritarian democracies in the contemporary world.
The findings bring favorable as well as adverse news for democracy. That is, while it is reasonable to be cautiously optimistic about possibly upending the battle against ‘autocratization’, some individual cases demonstrate initial symptoms of democratic regression in comparative contexts. Overall, the empirical results not only refine prevailing theoretical models of political trust by emphasizing citizen’s impulse towards psychological safety and order, but it also demonstrated the lasting (ideational and practical) appeals of personalism in the current political landscape which is constantly prone to crisis and pandemics.

Verification Letter from the Oral Examination Committee i
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ii
CHINESE ABSTRACT viii
ENGLISH ABSTRACT ix
TABLE OF CONTENTS xi
LIST OF FIGURES xiii
LIST OF TABLES xiv
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS xv
CHAPTER ONE 1
1.1. Introduction: Motivating puzzles 1
1.1.1. Rising Autocratization: Here comes the strongmen 3
1.1.2. An Anxious and Threatening World 5
1.1.3. Low Trust in Government and Political Institutions 7
1.2. Problem Statements 11
1.3. Objectives, Focus and Significance 12
1.4. Dissertation Outline 13
1.5. Contributions 14
CHAPTER TWO: 18
Theorizing the Heterogeneous Effect of Perceived Threats on Governmental Trust and Strong Leadership Support 18
2.1. Introduction 18
2.2. Theoretical arguments 19
2.2.1. Contending Approaches of Political Trust: The Need for Novel Explanations 22
2.2.2. Recasting political trust as a notion of ‘psychological safety’ 27
2.2.3. Threat typologies and perceptions of threat: the authoritarian in us 29
2.2.4. Heroic leadership dynamic 32
2.2.5. Delegative democratic attitude 34
2.3. Main Hypotheses of the Dissertation 36
CHAPTER THREE: 40
Testing the Effect of Perceived Threats on Governmental Trust and Support for Strong Leadership 40
3.1. Introduction 40
3.2. Research Design 41
3.2.1. Data 41
3.2.2. Dependent variables 45
3.2.3. Independent variables 50
3.2.4. Control variables 53
3.3. Empirical results 57
3.4. Conclusion 72
3.5. Appendix 74
CHAPTER FOUR: 87
Institutional Trust and Authoritarian Values in Proximally and Distally-Threatened Democracies: The Case of Taiwan and the Philippines 87
4.1. Introduction 87
4.2. Persistent authoritarian values and dwindling institutional trust in Asia 91
4.3. The Strong Leadership Turn in Democracies? Philippines and Taiwan in a Time of Low Public Trust in Government and Amplified Threats 94
4.4. Bases for Case Selection 96
4.5. Democratic consolidation in Taiwan and the Philippines: A tale of two transitions 99
4.5.1. Taiwan 100
4.5.2. Philippines 105
4.6. Research Design 110
4.6.1. Data 110
4.6.2. Results 112
4.7. Conclusion 122
4.8. Appendix 124
4.8.1. Full Model Specification 124
CHAPTER FIVE: 128
Conclusion 128
5.1. Summary of Findings 128
5.2. Limitations, Alternative Explanation and Future Research Agendas 132
REFERENCES 138

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