自1970年代發生了兩次石油危機，全球的政治及經濟產了諸多的影響，自此之後，許多學者紛紛的對供給面的干擾進行研究。本文透過一個簡單的隨機總體模型，運用圖解分析的方法，探討當央行設立物價目標區間時，面對不同型式的名目工資相關的經濟變量是否有安定的作用。我們發現，在名目工資僵固情況下，當經濟體系面臨總合供給面干擾時，央行設立物價目標區政策有效地減緩物價波動幅度，卻犧牲掉產出波動幅度；當經濟體系面臨總合需求干擾時，物價目標區政策有效地減緩物價及產出的波動幅度。在契約工資情況下，面臨總合供給面干擾，央行設立物價目標區政策，不論總合供給左移幅度大於或小於總合需求線右移的幅度，兩者都能使物價與產出存在蜜月效果；當總合需求面受到干擾時，實施物價目標區政策，不論總合供給左移幅度大於亦或小於總合需求線右移之幅度，兩者結論皆為物價有蜜月效果，而產出不存在蜜月效果。當政府實施完全工資指數化政策時，不論是總合供給面或總合需求面受到干擾，物價目標區政策皆有助於減緩物價波動。

The two oil crises in the 1970s led to numerous political and economic impacts globally. Since then, many scholars have started paying their attention to the supply-side shocks. This paper builds up a simple stochastic macroeconomic model and employs graphical analysis to explore whether a central bank establishes a price target zones would generate the stabilizing effect on the relevant macroeconomic variable under three different types of nominal wage determination. Three main findings emerge from the analysis. First, when the nominal wage is rigid, in the presence of aggregate supply disturbances, the policy of setting a price target zones by the central bank effectively tends to reduce the volatility of prices but sacrifices output volatility. However, in the presence of disturbances in aggregate demand, the price target zones policy effectively mitigates the volatility of both prices and output. Second, when the nominal wage is determined by a one-period contract, in the presence of the aggregate supply shocks, the policy of setting a price target zones by the central bank tends to stabilize both prices and output, thereby leading to the honeymoon effect on these two macroeconomic variables. However, in the presence of aggregate demand shocks, implementing a price target zones policy tends to stabilize commodity prices but destabilize output, thereby only generating the honeymoon effect on commodity prices. Third, when the nominal wage is determined in the manner of fully wage indexation, regardless of the presence of disturbances in aggregate supply or aggregate demand, a price target zones policy helps to mitigate price volatility.

論文審定書……………………………………………………………………………i
致 謝………………………………………………………………………………ii
摘要………………………………………………………………………………iii
Abstract……………………………………………………………………………iv
目錄…………………………………………………………………………………v
圖目錄………………………………………………………………………………vi
第一章 緒論……………………………………………………………………1
1.1 研究動機與背景………………………………………………………1
1.2 文獻回顧………………………………………………………………3
1.3 文章架構………………………………………………………………5
第二章 理論模型………………………………………………………………7
第三章 總合供給面干擾………………………………………………………11
3.1 名目工資僵固模型……………………………………………………11
3.2 契約工資………………………………………………………………15
3.3 完全工資指數…………………………………………………………22
3.4 蜜月效果………………………………………………………………25
第四章 總合需求面干擾………………………………………………………27
4.1 名目工資僵固…………………………………………………………27
4.2 契約工資………………………………………………………………30
4.3 完全工資指數…………………………………………………………38
4.4 蜜月效果………………………………………………………………41
第五章 結論……………………………………………………………………42
附錄A………………………………………………………………………………44
參考文獻……………………………………………………………………………49

中文文獻
賴景昌(2007)，《國際金融理論－基礎篇》，台北：華泰文化。

英文文獻
Bernanke, B. S. and Mishkin, F. S. (1997) , “ Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?” Journal of Economic Perspectives, pp.95-116
Blinder, A. S. (2000). “ Central-Bank Credibility: Why do We Care? How do We Build it? ” American Economic Review, pp.1421-31.
Corden, M. (2003). “Too Sensational: On the Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes” Southern Economic Journal, pp.435-437.
Ditmar, R., Gavin, W. T. and Finn E. K. (2000). “What Do New-Keynesian Phillips Curves Imply for Price-Level Targeting, ” Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, pp.21-30.
Fleming, J. M. (1962), “Domestic Financial Policies under Fixed and Floating-Exchange Rates,” IMF Staff Papers, pp.369-379.
Howitt, P. W. (1993), “Canada.” Monetary Policy in Developed Economies, Handbook of comparative EconomicPolicies,pp.459-508
Krugman, P. (1991). Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics. Quarterly Journal of Economics, pp.669-82.
Lai, C.C. and Chang, J.J (2001), “A Note on Inflation Targeting,” Journal of Economic Education
Lai, C. C. and Fang, C. R. (2012), “Is the Honeymoon Effect Valid in the Presence of Both Exchange Rate and Output Expectations? A Graphical Analysis,” International Review of Economics and Finance, pp.140-146.
Mundell, R. A. (1963), “Capital Mobility and Stabilization Policy under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates,” Canadian Journal of Economic and Political Science, pp.475-485.
Mishkin, F. S. (1998), The Economics of Money, Banking and Financial Markets. New York: Addison-Wesley.
Williamson, J. (1983), The Exchange Rate System. Washington DC: Institute for International Economics.