低出生率不僅影響日常社會(如醫療保健和勞動力)，而且也可能對台灣國家安全有著關鍵的影響。在台灣軍隊努力實現招募目標的同時，預計的人口下降可能會加劇台灣軍事人力供應的問題。本文研究了台灣政府機構的人口數據，並根據人口變化的趨勢、現時徵兵和志願服務規定以及適合服役的情況，為軍事人力供應作出推算。結果表明，人口下降將顯著影響可用軍事人力的供應。這研究提出了應對較小人力資源和部署可靠部隊的相關建議，包括以更嚴格的義務徵兵制取代全志願徵兵制、放鬆移民法、擴大服務年齡範圍和採用自動化的新技術。

The decline in low birthrates not only impacts society, as far as healthcare and labor market, but may likely play a pivotal role in the future of Taiwan’s national security. In a time when Taiwan’s armed forces are struggling to meet recruitment goals, the projected decline in the population may exacerbate Taiwan’s military manning. This paper examined the population data from Taiwan’s government agencies and devised the projections for military manpower availability based on the population trends, conscription and volunteer service regulations, and fitness for service. The results showed that the population decline will significantly impact available military manpower supply. The research proposed recommendations to cope with a smaller manpower pool and field a credible force, to include canceling the all-volunteer force structure and reverting to a more rigorous conscription service, loosening immigration laws, employing new technologies that leverage automation, and extending the service age and commitment limitations.

Table of Contents
Thesis Validation Letter i
Thesis Authorization Letter ii
Acknowledgements iii
Chinese Abstract iv
English Abstract v
1. Introduction 1
1.1. Purpose 3
1.2. Research Motivation 4
2. Literature Review 6
2.1. Historical Perspective 6
2.1.1. Potential Regional Conflicts 7
2.1.2. Taiwan-China Relations 9
2.2. Demographic Trends 10
2.2.1. Genesis of the Low Birthrate 11
2.2.2. Modern Factors Influencing the Low Birthrate 12
2.2.3. Aging Population 13
2.2.4. Implications of Aging Society on the Military 14
2.3. Military Manpower Framework 14
2.3.1. Military Personnel Structure Perspectives 15
2.3.2. All-Volunteer Force 16
2.3.3. Conscription in Taiwan 18
2.3.4. Efficacy of the Two Approaches 20
2.4. Manpower Assessment 20
2.4.1. Taiwan’s Military Doctrine 21
2.4.2. Manpower Regulations 22
2.4.3. Manpower Strength 23
2.4.4. State of Taiwan Armed Forces 23
2.5. Case Study: U.S. Immigration Policies Boost Population 24
2.6. Objective 29
3. Methodology 30
3.1. Data Sources 30
3.2. Analytical Techniques 31
3.2.1. Quantitative Analysis 31
3.2.2. Qualitative Analysis 32
4. Results 34
4.1. Population Projections 34
4.2. Military Manpower Projection 35
4.2.1. Conscription Manpower Projections 35
4.2.2. Volunteer Service Manpower Projections 38
4.2.3. Fit for Service Projections 40
5. Discussion 44
5.1. Strengths 44
5.1.1. Advantage of Defensive Posture 44
5.1.2. Strong Diplomatic Relations 46
5.1.3. Military Doctrine for a Singular Adversary 47
5.1.4. Growing Gross Domestic Product Fueling Military Spending 47
5.2. Weaknesses 50
5.2.1. Changing Role of Women 50
5.2.2. Weapons Procurement and Sustainment 53
5.2.3. Challenges in Military Recruiting 58
5.3. Opportunities 63
5.3.1. Advanced Technology 63
5.3.2. Increasing International Cooperation 66
5.3.3. Reforming Immigration Policies 67
5.4. Threats 69
5.4.1. Aversion Toward Military Service 69
5.4.2. Growing GDP Rates in SEA 70
6. Recommendations 73
6.1. Terminate the All-Volunteer Force 74
6.1.1. Training an Effective Professional Force 76
6.1.2. Case Study of Ukraine’s Failed Manpower Strategy 76
6.2. Extend Age Limitations for Service 79
6.2.1. Increase Compulsory Service Age Restriction 80
6.2.2. Increase Volunteer Manpower Age Restriction 81
6.3. Field More Advanced Remote Weapons 83
6.3.1. Modernize Republic of China Air Force 83
6.3.2. Modernize Republic of China Navy 84
6.4. Implement Flexible Immigration Policies 84
6.4.1. Promote Permanent Residency 86
6.4.2. Dual Citizenship 87
6.5. Contract Foreign Personnel to Fill Manpower Gaps 88
6.5.1. Model the French Foreign Legion 89
6.5.2. Outsource Support Personnel 89
7. Conclusion 91
7.1. Contributions 92
7.2. Limitations 94
7.3. Future Research 94
References 95
Appendix A. Population Projections 119

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